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Contagion and the Asian Currency Crisis

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  • Reside, Renato E, Jr
  • Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro

Abstract

This study attempts to examine relationships among exchange rates in the Asian region using cointegration methods and to isolate country-specific effects of contagion using an error correction model. Monthly data covering the period from July 1992 to December 1997 are used. Dynamic simulations of exchange rates with and without short-run effects of exchange rate shocks are performed. The results indicate that stable long-run relationships exist among exchange rates in the region. Simulation results for some countries indicate that these countries' exchange rates would have depreciated in the long run even in the absence of the short-run effects of potential contagion from other countries, while for other countries the opposite is true. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Suggested Citation

  • Reside, Renato E, Jr & Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro, 1999. "Contagion and the Asian Currency Crisis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(5), pages 460-474, Special I.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:67:y:1999:i:5:p:460-74
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    Cited by:

    1. Wajih Khallouli & Rene Sandretto, 2011. "Testing for “Contagion” of the Subprime Crisis on the Middle East And North African Stock Markets: A Markov Switching EGARCH Approach," Working Papers 609, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 Jan 2011.
    2. Hizir Sofyan & M. Shabri Abd. Majid & Moh. Rizky Rahmanda, 2019. "Modeling Dynamic Causalities between the Indonesian Rupiah and Forex Markets of ASEAN, Japan and Europe," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    3. D Brookfield & A Azizan, 2006. "Contagion and the Role of Market Development: the Case of the Malaysian Futures Market during the East Asian Crisis of 1997," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Younes Boujelbène & Majdi Ksantini, 2009. "La transmission entre les marchés boursiers :Une analyse en composante principale," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 161-194.
    5. Abd. Majid, M. Shabri & Sofyan, Hizir & Rahmanda, Moh. Rizky, 2018. "Dynamic Interdependence of the Indonesian Rupiah with the ASEAN and the World Largest Forex Markets," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(1), pages 57-66.
    6. Khalid, Ahmed M. & Kawai, Masahiro, 2003. "Was financial market contagion the source of economic crisis in Asia?: Evidence using a multivariate VAR model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 131-156, February.
    7. AuYong, Hue Hwa & Gan, Christopher & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2004. "Cointegration and causality in the Asian and emerging foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the 1990s financial crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 479-515.
    8. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee & Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Brenda & Martin, Vance, 2006. "Contagion in international bond markets during the Russian and the LTCM crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, April.

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