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Model Selection for Broadband Semiparametric Estimation of Long Memory in Time Series

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  • Clifford M. Hurvich

Abstract

We study the properties of Mallows' CL criterion for selecting a fractional exponential (FEXP) model for a Gaussian long‐memory time series. The aim is to minimize the mean squared error of a corresponding regression estimator dFEXP of the memory parameter, d. Under conditions which do not require that the data were actually generated by a FEXP model, it is known that the mean squared error MSE=E[dFEXP−d]2 can converge to zero as fast as (log n)/n, where n is the sample size, assuming that the number of parameters grows slowly with n in a deterministic fashion. Here, we suppose that the number of parameters in the FEXP model is chosen so as to minimize a local version of CL, restricted to frequencies in a neighborhood of zero. We show that, under appropriate conditions, the expected value of the local CL is asymptotically equivalent to MSE. A combination of theoretical and simulation results give guidance as to the choice of the degree of locality in CL.

Suggested Citation

  • Clifford M. Hurvich, 2001. "Model Selection for Broadband Semiparametric Estimation of Long Memory in Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(6), pages 679-709, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:22:y:2001:i:6:p:679-709
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9892.00248
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    Cited by:

    1. Masaki Narukawa & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2008. "Broadband semiparametric estimation of the long-memory parameter by the likelihood-based FEXP approach," TERG Discussion Papers 239, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    2. Hidalgo, J., 2008. "Specification testing for regression models with dependent data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 143-165, March.
    3. Liudas Giraitis & Peter M Robinson, 2002. "Edgeworth Expansions for Semiparametric Whittle Estimation of Long Memory," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 438, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    4. Jan Beran & Sucharita Ghosh, 2020. "Estimating the Mean Direction of Strongly Dependent Circular Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 210-228, March.
    5. Javier Hidalgo, 2007. "Specification Testing Forregression Models Withdependent Data," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 518, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    6. Giraitis, Liudas & Robinson, Peter, 2002. "Edgeworth expansions for semiparametric Whittle estimation of long memory," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2130, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Dalla, Violetta & Giraitis, Liudas & Hidalgo, Javier, 2006. "Consistent estimation of the memory parameter for nonlinear time series," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6813, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Hidalgo, Javier, 2007. "Specification testing for regression models with dependent data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6799, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Chen, Willa W. & Hurvich, Clifford M., 2003. "Estimating fractional cointegration in the presence of polynomial trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 95-121, November.
    10. Saeed Heravi & Kerry Patterson, 2005. "Optimal And Adaptive Semi‐Parametric Narrowband And Broadband And Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of The Long‐Memory Parameter For Real Exchange Rates," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(2), pages 165-213, March.
    11. Angela Ferretti & L. Ippoliti & P. Valentini & R. J. Bhansali, 2023. "Long memory conditional random fields on regular lattices," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), August.
    12. Giraitis, L. & Robinson, P.M., 2003. "Edgeworth expansions for semiparametric Whittle estimation of long memory," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 291, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Violetta Dalla & Liudas Giraitis & Javier Hidalgo, 2006. "Consistent estimation of the memory parameterfor nonlinear time series," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 497, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.

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