IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssc/v59y2010i5p839-853.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An application of hidden Markov models to the French variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Chadeau-Hyam
  • Paul S. Clarke
  • Chantal Guihenneuc-Jouyaux
  • Simon N. Cousens
  • Robert G. Will
  • Azra C. Ghani

Abstract

In 1996, the discovery of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the UK raised serious concerns about a large-scale epidemic. These concerns have been heightened by the recent discovery of people in Britain who were infected through blood transfusion. The outbreak of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in France emerged more recently with 23 cases observed to date. We use a hidden Markov model to predict the scale of the epidemic in France. As accurate data on the most important epidemiological parameters are scarce, we incorporate estimates from previous studies. Parameter estimation is performed by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods from which credible intervals for our predictions are obtained. The sensitivity of these predictions to important assumptions regarding population exposure is assessed. Copyright (c) 2010 Royal Statistical Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Chadeau-Hyam & Paul S. Clarke & Chantal Guihenneuc-Jouyaux & Simon N. Cousens & Robert G. Will & Azra C. Ghani, 2010. "An application of hidden Markov models to the French variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(5), pages 839-853.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:59:y:2010:i:5:p:839-853
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2010.00714.x
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glen A. Satten & Maya R. Sternberg, 1999. "Fitting Semi-Markov Models to Interval-Censored Data with Unknown Initiation Times," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 507-513, June.
    2. Catherine M. Crespi & William G. Cumberland & Sally Blower, 2005. "A Queueing Model for Chronic Recurrent Conditions under Panel Observation," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 193-198, March.
    3. Chantal Guihenneuc-Jouyaux & Sylvia Richardson & Ira M. Longini Jr., 2000. "Modeling Markers of Disease Progression by a Hidden Markov Process: Application to Characterizing CD4 Cell Decline," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 733-741, September.
    4. Pierre Joly & Daniel Commenges, 1999. "A Penalized Likelihood Approach for a Progressive Three-State Model with Censored and Truncated Data: Application to AIDS," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 887-890, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chris Sherlock & Tatiana Xifara & Sandra Telfer & Mike Begon, 2013. "A coupled hidden Markov model for disease interactions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(4), pages 609-627, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:59:y:2010:i:5:p:839-853. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.