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Subjective Modelling and Bayes Linear Estimation in the Uk Water Industry

Author

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  • A. O'Hagan
  • E. B. Glennie
  • R. E. Beardsall

Abstract

In their preparation for privatization, the English and Welsh water authorities were required to submit estimates of the amount of capital investment that would be required over 20 years to maintain, improve and extend their assets. A Bayesian analysis was adopted by two of the water authorities. We present the methodology used and illustrate it with part of an analysis used for South West Water.

Suggested Citation

  • A. O'Hagan & E. B. Glennie & R. E. Beardsall, 1992. "Subjective Modelling and Bayes Linear Estimation in the Uk Water Industry," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 41(3), pages 563-577, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:41:y:1992:i:3:p:563-577
    DOI: 10.2307/2348090
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    Cited by:

    1. Werner, Christoph & Bedford, Tim & Cooke, Roger M. & Hanea, Anca M. & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo, 2017. "Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 801-819.
    2. Zhang, Wenjuan & Wang, Wenbin, 2014. "Cost modelling in maintenance strategy optimisation for infrastructure assets with limited data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 33-41.
    3. Goldstein, Michael & Bedford, Tim, 2007. "The Bayes linear approach to inference and decision-making for a reliability programme," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1344-1352.
    4. M Revie & T Bedford & L Walls, 2010. "Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(4), pages 322-332, December.

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