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Investor Reaction to Celebrity Analysts: The Case of Earnings Forecast Revisions

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  • SARAH E. BONNER
  • ARTUR HUGON
  • BEVERLY R. WALTHER

Abstract

We examine the effects of analysts' celebrity on investor reaction to earnings forecast revisions. We measure celebrity as the quantity of media coverage analysts receive in sources included in the Dow Jones Interactive database, and find that media coverage is positively related to investor reaction to forecast revisions. The effect of celebrity on the reaction to forecast revisions remains significant after controlling for forecast performance variables examined in prior studies (ex post forecast accuracy, ex ante accuracy, award status, and other variables shown to be related to forecast accuracy). While these results are consistent with the familiarity of the analyst's name affecting the market reaction, we cannot rule out that our measure of celebrity is correlated with error in the performance measures we examine and/or correlated with other unexamined dimensions of forecast performance. A content analysis of a random subsample of the media coverage of our sample analysts suggests that our findings likely are not due to the increased availability of forecast revisions. Finally, an investigation of the excess returns around the quarterly earnings announcement date suggests that market participants react too strongly to forecast revisions issued by analysts with high levels of media coverage. Taken together, these findings suggest that an analyst's level of media coverage can affect the initial market reaction to his forecast revisions.

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  • Sarah E. Bonner & Artur Hugon & Beverly R. Walther, 2007. "Investor Reaction to Celebrity Analysts: The Case of Earnings Forecast Revisions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 481-513, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:45:y:2007:i:3:p:481-513
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-679X.2007.00245.x
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    3. Rees, Lynn & Sharp, Nathan Y. & Wong, Paul A., 2017. "Working on the weekend: Do analysts strategically time the release of their recommendation revisions?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 104-121.
    4. Samie Ahmed Sayed, 2016. "Are Stars Worth Following? Measuring the Target Price Predictive Ability of Star Analysts in an Emerging Market," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 5(2), pages 173-185, July.
    5. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    6. Huang, Allen H. & Lin, An-Ping & Zang, Amy Y., 2022. "Cross-industry information sharing among colleagues and analyst research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1).
    7. Danling Jiang & Alok Kumar & Kelvin K. F. Law, 2016. "Political contributions and analyst behavior," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 37-88, March.
    8. Lian Fen Lee & Alvis K. Lo, 2016. "Do Opinions on Financial Misstatement Firms Affect Analysts’ Reputation with Investors? Evidence from Reputational Spillovers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 1111-1148, September.
    9. Xiaoxiao Song, 2019. "Effects Of Analysts’ Country Familiarity On Forecast Behavior: Evidence From Chinese Cross-Listed Firms In The United States," Accounting & Taxation, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 11(1), pages 35-46.
    10. Chia-Wei Chen & Christos Pantzalis & Jung Chul Park, 2013. "Press Coverage And Stock Price Deviation From Fundamental Value," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 175-214, June.
    11. K. Hung Chan & Ray R. Wang & Ruixin Wang, 2021. "The Macbeth Factor: The Dark Side of Achievement‐driving Analysts," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(2), pages 325-361, June.
    12. Lily Fang & Ayako Yasuda, 2014. "Are Stars’ Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 235-269, December.
    13. Yih-Wenn Laih, 2016. "Do Experts in Financial Magazines Exhibit the Representativeness Heuristic? Evidence from Taiwan," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(4), pages 1-49, November.
    14. Alok Kumar, 2010. "Self‐Selection and the Forecasting Abilities of Female Equity Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 393-435, May.
    15. Xu, Nianhang & Chan, Kam C. & Jiang, Xuanyu & Yi, Zhihong, 2013. "Do star analysts know more firm-specific information? Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 89-102.
    16. Philip Brown & Alexey Feigin & Andrew Ferguson, 2014. "Market reactions to the reports of a star resource analyst," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(1), pages 137-158, February.
    17. Ole-Kristian Hope & Wuyang Zhao, 2018. "Market reactions to the closest peer firm’s analyst revisions," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 345-372, June.
    18. Li, Chao Kevin & Luo, Jin-hui & Soderstrom, Naomi S., 2020. "Air pollution and analyst information production," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Vafaeimehr, Ahmadreza & Schulmerich, Marcus & Paterlini, Sandra, 2023. "Top investment banks, confirmation Bias, and the market pricing of forecast revisions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Olivier Driessens, 2015. "On the epistemology and operationalisation of celebrity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62291, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Lin Peng & Siew Hong Teoh & Yakun Wang & Jiawen Yan, 2022. "Face Value: Trait Impressions, Performance Characteristics, and Market Outcomes for Financial Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 653-705, May.
    22. Yuyan Guan & Congcong Li & Hai Lu & M. H. Franco Wong, 2019. "Regulations and Brain Drain: Evidence from Wall Street Star Analysts’ Career Choices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(12), pages 5766-5784, December.
    23. Ferhat D. Zengul & Nurettin Oner & James D. Byrd & Arline Savage, 2021. "Revealing Research Themes and Trends in 30 Top‐ranking Accounting Journals: A Text‐mining Approach," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(3), pages 468-501, September.

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