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Recognizing Macroeconomic Fluctuations In Value Based Management

Author

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  • Lars Oxelheim
  • Clas Wihlborg

Abstract

Value Based Management (VBM) has become a common tool for evaluating corporate strategies and projects from the perspective of shareholder value maximization, and can be an important input for corporate compensation systems. But traditional VBM frameworks make no systematic effort to distinguish between changes in performance attributable to macroeconomic fluctuations beyond management's control and changes in performance that reflect the intrinsic competitive position of the firm. The authors have developed an approach for “filtering out” the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on cash flows for purposes of performance evaluation. Such fluctuations are captured by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and aggregate price levels (both domestically and abroad) that are significantly correlated with a particular company's cash flows. The authors also provide a method for distinguishing between expected and unanticipated cash flow effects of macro events and recommend insulating managers' performance only from the changes they cannot anticipate and manage. In applying the framework to Electrolux, a Swedish multinational, the authors show that unanticipated changes in the krona/pound exchange rate and various interest rates contribute significantly to the variability of the firm's cash flows; and with the help of the sensitivity coefficients used to measure such exposures, they calculate measures of “intrinsic” cash flow that are purged of such macro effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Oxelheim & Clas Wihlborg, 2003. "Recognizing Macroeconomic Fluctuations In Value Based Management," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 15(4), pages 104-110, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jacrfn:v:15:y:2003:i:4:p:104-110
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-6622.2003.tb00531.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Oxelheim, Lars & Wihlborg, Clas & Zhang, Jianhoa, 2008. "Executive Compensation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Working Paper Series 746, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    2. Bartram, Söhnke M., 2008. "What lies beneath: Foreign exchange rate exposure, hedging and cash flows," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1508-1521, August.
    3. Joseph Calandro, 2006. "Accident Year Development, Bonus Banks, and Insurance Incentive Compensation," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 9(2), pages 205-217, September.
    4. Lee, Seul Ki & Jang, SooCheong (Shawn), 2011. "Foreign exchange exposure of US tourism-related firms," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 934-948.
    5. Andrén, Niclas & Oxelheim, Lars, 2002. "Exchange-Rate and Interest-Rate Driven Competitive Advantages in the EMU," Working Paper Series 576, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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