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A Dynamic and Stochastic Beta and Its Implications in Global Capital Markets

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  • Hong‐Jen Lin
  • Winston T. Lin

Abstract

This article investigates the dynamic and stochastic behaviour of the beta coefficient of the one‐factor international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), and its implications for the pricing of stock markets at the country level and the forecasting of stock returns in global stock markets. We apply several novel econometric techniques and conduct necessary statistical tests. We find that the ICAPM has a stochastic and dynamic beta coefficient and that the global stock market is efficient and integrated, and the world market portfolio is mean‐variance efficient. We demonstrate that the dynamic and stochastic behaviour of country betas for the developed countries differs from that of developing economies. The empirical results indicate that the trend and the unexpected change of the foreign exchange rate contribute significantly to the variation patterns of country betas, and that explicit consideration of such changing characteristics will serve to increase the accuracy of stock return forecasts in global stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong‐Jen Lin & Winston T. Lin, 2000. "A Dynamic and Stochastic Beta and Its Implications in Global Capital Markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 123-160, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:3:y:2000:i:1:p:123-160
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-2362.00044
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    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:14:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Winston T. Lin & Hong-Jen Lin & Yueh H. Chen, 2002. "The Dynamics and Stochastics of Currency Betas Based on the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Foreign Exchange Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 6(3-4), pages 167-195, September.
    3. Chen, Yueh H. & Lin, Winston T., 2009. "Analyzing the relationships between information technology, inputs substitution and national characteristics based on CES stochastic frontier production models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 552-569, August.
    4. López-Herrera, Francisco & Valencia-Herrera, Humberto, 2016. "Hacia un Modelo de Valuación de Activos de Capital para México: Análisis de Activos Individuales con Coeficientes Variantes en el Tiempo," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(22), pages 75-103, primer se.
    5. Lin, Winston T. & Kao, Ta-Wei (Daniel), 2014. "The partial adjustment valuation approach with dynamic and variable speeds of adjustment to evaluating and measuring the business value of information technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 208-220.
    6. Winston T. Lin, 1999. "Dynamic and Stochastic Instability and the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: A Variable Mean Response Approach," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 173-221, September.
    7. Nieto Domenech, Belén & Orbe Mandaluniz, Susan & Zárraga Alonso, Ainhoa, 2011. "Time-Varying Beta Estimators in the Mexican Emerging Market," BILTOKI 1134-8984, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
    8. William Shambora & Shamila Jayasuriya, 2008. "The world is shrinking: Evidence for stock market convergence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(14), pages 1-12.
    9. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2006. "The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle: Evidence from New Cointegration Tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp123, IIIS.
    10. Raj Aggarwal & Winston T. Lin & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2008. "Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 1-20, March-Jun.

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