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Grey Swans – Agricultural Price Spikes Are Not a Thing of the Past

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  • Ian Mitchell

Abstract

type="graphical" xml:id="euch12108-abs-0101"> Food price spikes can lead to significant increases in hunger and disruption but unlike ‘Black Swans’ they are not unforeseen or extremely unlikely events. Perhaps they are Grey Swans. With a new era for global agricultural markets, but in a period of relative calm, how should we be preparing for the risk of future disruption? This article looks first at the new era for global agriculture characterised by new price trends, shifting policy landscapes and trade patterns as well as the prospect of climate change. It highlights a more explicit risk of further food commodity price spikes, and considers the G20's response in the form of the Agricultural Markets Information System (AMIS).

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  • Ian Mitchell, 2015. "Grey Swans – Agricultural Price Spikes Are Not a Thing of the Past," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 14(3), pages 40-46, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eurcho:v:14:y:2015:i:3:p:40-46
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/euch.2015.14.issue-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernard Hoekman & Matteo Fiorini & Aydin Yildirim, 2020. "Export Restrictions: A Negative-Sum Policy Response to the COVID-19 crisis," RSCAS Working Papers 2020/23, European University Institute.
    2. Hussein, Mohamud & Law, Cherry & Fraser, Iain, 2021. "An analysis of food demand in a fragile and insecure country: Somalia as a case study," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

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