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Macroeconomic Factors and the Asymmetric Predictability of Conditional Variances

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  • Iftekhar Hasan
  • Bill B. Francis

Abstract

This paper investigates the predictability of the volatilities of large versus small firms. Using AR‐GARCH models we show that there is symmetry in the ability of firms of different market values to predict conditional variances. Specifically, we show that volatility surprises of small (large) firms are important in predicting the conditional variance of large (small) firms. These results are different than those previously reported which indicate that there is an asymmetry in the predictability of the volatilities of large versus small firms. This predictive ability is still present when the equation of conditional variance includes state variables such as the default premium, dividend yield and the term premium. Finally, our results indicate that the pattern of symmetric predictability is present in both pre‐ and post‐war sample periods.

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  • Iftekhar Hasan & Bill B. Francis, 1998. "Macroeconomic Factors and the Asymmetric Predictability of Conditional Variances," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 4(2), pages 207-230, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:4:y:1998:i:2:p:207-230
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-036X.00064
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    Cited by:

    1. Koulakiotis, Athanasios & Babalos, Vassilios & Papasyriopoulos, Nicholas, 2016. "Financial crisis, liquidity and dynamic linkages between large and small stocks: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 46-62.
    2. Richard D. F. Harris & Anirut Pisedtasalasai, 2006. "Return and Volatility Spillovers Between Large and Small Stocks in the UK," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1556-1571, November.
    3. Karmakar, Madhusudan, 2010. "Information transmission between small and large stocks in the National Stock Exchange in India: An empirical study," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 110-120, February.

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