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The euro for the Balkans?

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  • Daniel Gros

Abstract

This paper makes the case for full euroization of the Balkans. It argues that the full adoption of the new currency, including the use of euro notes and coins, would bring important benefits for the countries in south east Europe. The key benefit of euroization would be the opportunity it would provide to radically reform and open the financial system, thus changing the equilibrium of the domestic political economy (by eliminating political influence over credit allocation). It also argues that the loss of seigniorage would be minor, but that there is no reason why the rich EU should benefit from this. Compensation for the loss of seigniorage would be technically easy to implement. Finally, the paper presents a small model that demonstrates how a devaluation might actually impair the debt‐servicing capacity of the government. This implies that the exchange rate cannot easily absorb shocks to the interest rate to be paid on external debt, or to the availability of capital for emerging markets in general. A deterioration in the availability of external capital might thus trigger extremely large exchange rate adjustments, which in turn can disrupt the domestic financial system. This should be an important consideration for such a highly indebted region. JEL classification: F33, F32.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Gros, 2002. "The euro for the Balkans?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 491-511, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:10:y:2002:i:2:p:491-511
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.00122
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mico Apostolov & Dusko Josevski, 2016. "Aggregate Demand–Inflation Adjustment Model Applied to Southeast European Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 5(1), pages 141-157.
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/3361 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sandrine Levasseur, 2004. "Why not euroisation?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 121-156.
    4. Marek Dabrowski, 2006. "A Strategy for EMU Enlargement," Springer Books, in: Marek Dabrowski & Jacek Rostowski (ed.), The Eastern Enlargement of the Eurozone, chapter 0, pages 199-225, Springer.
    5. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/3361 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3361 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Neven T Valev, 2006. "From a Currency Board to the Euro: Public Attitudes Toward Unilateral Euroisation in Bulgaria1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 480-496, September.
    8. Helena Nemec Rudez & Stefan Bojnec, 2008. "Impacts of the Euro on the Slovenian Tourism Industry," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 6(4), pages 445-460.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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