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Does population pressure induce farm intensification? Empirical evidence from Tigrai Region, Ethiopia

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  • Muuz Hadush
  • Stein T. Holden
  • Mesfin Tilahun

Abstract

The scarcity of land for crop and livestock production is critical in countries with growing populations. The idea that increasing population density leads to natural resource depletion and economic failure, as predicted by Malthus, or rather to farm intensification, as hypothesized by Boserup, motivates this research. This article examines how high population pressure in northern Ethiopia influences smallholders’ farm intensification by applying recursive estimation with a control function approach using data from 518 randomly selected farmers. Although our empirical results are more in favor of the Boserupian hypothesis, the findings also reveal that both Malthusian and Boserupian forces coexist. Consistent with Malthus theory, high population pressure is found to be associated with small farm size and herd size. Population pressure affected both technology use (breed cow, stall feeding, and modern cattle feed) and output supply (milk yield, milk income, and straw output). As predicted by Boserup's theory, the use of modern input and output supply initially increases with increasing population pressure but declines again when population densities pass a critical threshold (800 persons/km2), supporting Malthus’ hypothesis. The estimation results also revealed that both milk and straw supply responded positively to prices. Free grazing and stall feeding are found to be complementary activities. Likewise, crop farm income and off‐farm job have a nonlinear relation with population pressure, implying that both initially increase and then decrease with rising population pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Muuz Hadush & Stein T. Holden & Mesfin Tilahun, 2019. "Does population pressure induce farm intensification? Empirical evidence from Tigrai Region, Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(3), pages 259-277, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:50:y:2019:i:3:p:259-277
    DOI: 10.1111/agec.12482
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    Cited by:

    1. Kibrom A. Abay & Lina Abdelfattah & Hoda El‐Enbaby & Mai Mahmoud & Clemens Breisinger, 2022. "Plot size and sustainable input intensification in smallholder irrigated agriculture: Evidence from Egypt," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 792-810, September.
    2. Adam M. Komarek & Siwa Msangi, 2019. "Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(5), pages 615-628, September.
    3. Ridwan Lanre Ibrahim & Usama Al-Mulali & Kazeem Bello Ajide & Abubakar Mohammed & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2023. "The Implications of Food Security on Sustainability: Do Trade Facilitation, Population Growth, and Institutional Quality Make or Mar the Target for SSA?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, January.

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