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Beyond Climate Change: Empirical Evidence that Lagdo Dam Operations and not Rainfall Variability Drive Catastrophic Flooding in Nigeria's Niger Delta

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Listed:
  • Itoghor, Monday Ogheneruona

    (Environmental and Rural Mediation Centre (ENVIRUMEDIC), Warri, Delta State)

  • Onosemuode, Christopher

    (Department of Environmental Management and Toxicology, Federal University of Petroleum Resources, Effurun, Delta State)

Abstract

The Niger Delta experiences recurrent catastrophic flooding often attributed to climate change in policy discourse. However, local communities consistently identify releases from Cameroon's Lagdo Dam as the principal driver, indicating a transboundary governance issue insufficiently addressed in disaster risk reduction frameworks. This study investigates the relationship between Lagdo Dam operations and flood occurrence in Delta State, Nigeria, over a 30-year period (1995–2024), integrating climate trend analysis with community knowledge. A mixed-methods design combined Mann–Kendall trend analysis, Sen’s slope estimation, and Pettitt change-point detection for precipitation and temperature data with community perceptions obtained from 761 household surveys (94.0% response rate), 36 key informant interviews, and 18 focus group discussions across 18 communities. Geospatial analysis applied Principal Component Analysis to construct a Social Vulnerability Index and used Geographically Weighted Regression to model spatial flood impacts. Results show significant warming (+1.17 °C over 30 years, p 0.05). Change-point analysis identified 2012 as a major break in flood frequency (p

Suggested Citation

  • Itoghor, Monday Ogheneruona & Onosemuode, Christopher, 2026. "Beyond Climate Change: Empirical Evidence that Lagdo Dam Operations and not Rainfall Variability Drive Catastrophic Flooding in Nigeria's Niger Delta," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science (IJRIAS), vol. 11(13), pages 210-226, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bjf:journl:v:11:y:2026:i:13:p:210-226
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roy Brouwer & Sonia Akter & Luke Brander & Enamul Haque, 2007. "Socioeconomic Vulnerability and Adaptation to Environmental Risk: A Case Study of Climate Change and Flooding in Bangladesh," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 313-326, April.
    2. A. N. Pettitt, 1979. "A Non‐Parametric Approach to the Change‐Point Problem," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 28(2), pages 126-135, June.
    3. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
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