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Application of Stein Rules to Combination Forecasting


  • Fomby, Thomas B
  • Samanta, Subarna K


The authors propose some Stein-rule combination forecasting methods that are designed to ameliorate the estimation of risk inherent in making operational the variance-covariance method for constructing combination weights. By Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown that this amelioration can be substantial in many cases. Moreover, generalized Stein-rule combinations are proposed that offer the user the opportunity to enhance combination forecasting performance when shrinking the feasible variance-covariance weights toward a fortuitous shrinkage point. In an empirical exercise, the proposed Stein-rule combinations performed well relative to competing combination methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Fomby, Thomas B & Samanta, Subarna K, 1991. "Application of Stein Rules to Combination Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 391-407, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:9:y:1991:i:4:p:391-407

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. repec:bla:restud:v:57:y:1990:i:1:p:99-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gregory, Allan W, 1994. "Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 347-360, July.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
    4. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, June.
    5. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    6. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steven D. Levitt, 2003. "How Do Markets Function? An Empirical Analysis of Gambling on the National Football League," NBER Working Papers 9422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andrew F. Siegel & Artemiza Woodgate, 2007. "Performance of Portfolios Optimized with Estimation Error," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 1005-1015, June.
    3. Chan, Chi Kin & Kingsman, Brian G. & Wong, H., 1999. "The value of combining forecasts in inventory management - a case study in banking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 199-210, September.
    4. Bunn, Derek W. & Vassilopoulos, Angelos I., 1999. "Comparison of seasonal estimation methods in multi-item short-term forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 431-443, October.
    5. Eric Hillebrand & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2012. "Stein-Rule Estimation and Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2012-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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