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The Shape of the Risk Premium: Evidence from a Semiparametric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model

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  • Linton, Oliver
  • Perron, Benoit

Abstract

We examine the relationship between the risk premium on the Center for Research on Security Prices (CRSP) value-weighted index total return and its conditional variance. We propose a new semiparametric model in which the conditional variance process is parametric and the conditional mean is an arbitrary function of the conditional variance. For monthly CRSP value-weighted excess returns, the relationship between the two moments that we uncover is nonlinear and nonmonotonic.

Suggested Citation

  • Linton, Oliver & Perron, Benoit, 2003. "The Shape of the Risk Premium: Evidence from a Semiparametric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 354-367, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:21:y:2003:i:3:p:354-67
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Song, Zefang & Song, Xinyuan & Li, Yuan, 2023. "Bayesian Analysis of ARCH-M model with a dynamic latent variable," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 47-62.
    2. Jie Zhu, 2008. "FIEGARCH-M and and International Crises: A Cross-Country Analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2008-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Seok Young Hong & Oliver Linton, 2016. "Asymptotic properties of a Nadaraya-Watson type estimator for regression functions of in?finite order," CeMMAP working papers CWP53/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Christian Conrad & Karin Loch, 2015. "Anticipating Long‐Term Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1090-1114, November.
    5. Jing Li, 2021. "On Estimating Risk Premium With Flexible Fourier Form," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1026-1035.
    6. Hong, Seok Young & Linton, Oliver, 2020. "Nonparametric estimation of infinite order regression and its application to the risk-return tradeoff," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 389-424.
    7. Conrad, Christian & Mammen, Enno, 2016. "Asymptotics for parametric GARCH-in-Mean models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(2), pages 319-329.
    8. Christian M. Hafner & Dimitra Kyriakopoulou, 2021. "Exponential-Type GARCH Models With Linear-in-Variance Risk Premium," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 589-603, March.
    9. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Zhu, Jie, 2010. "Long memory in stock market volatility and the volatility-in-mean effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 460-470, June.
    10. repec:awi:wpaper:0473 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Dias, Gustavo Fruet, 2017. "The time-varying GARCH-in-mean model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 129-132.
    12. Enno Mammen & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz & Stefan Sperlich, 2019. "Conditional Variance Forecasts for Long-Term Stock Returns," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, November.
    13. Likai Chen & Ekaterina Smetanina & Wei Biao Wu, 2022. "Estimation of nonstationary nonparametric regression model with multiplicative structure [Income and wealth distribution in macroeconomics: A continuous-time approach]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 176-214.
    14. Seok Young Hong & Oliver Linton, 2016. "Asymptotic properties of a Nadaraya-Watson type estimator for regression functions of in finite order," CeMMAP working papers 53/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    15. Linton, Oliver & Sancetta, Alessio, 2009. "Consistent estimation of a general nonparametric regression function in time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(1), pages 70-78, September.

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