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Analyzing Ultimatum Bargaining: A Bayesian Approach to the Comparison of Two Potency Curves under Shape Constraints

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  • Fong, Duncan K H
  • Bolton, Gary E

Abstract

An experiment designed to test whether experimenter observation influences play of the ultimatum game led to a comparison of proportions of perfect equilibria obtained under different conditions. The authors' analysis features a Bayesian approach to this comparison. Their method extends recent work in the nonparametric Bayesian analysis of bioassay problems when the prior constrains the form of the potency curve. Sampling-based approaches to calculating posterior features of interest are used and discussed. The authors conclude that experimenter observation has a small influence but not enough to account for most of the deviation from perfect-equilibrium play.

Suggested Citation

  • Fong, Duncan K H & Bolton, Gary E, 1997. "Analyzing Ultimatum Bargaining: A Bayesian Approach to the Comparison of Two Potency Curves under Shape Constraints," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 335-344, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:15:y:1997:i:3:p:335-44
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    Cited by:

    1. DeSarbo, Wayne S. & Kim, Youngchan & Wedel, Michel & Fong, Duncan K. H., 1998. "A Bayesian approach to the spatial representation of market structure from consumer choice data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 285-305, December.
    2. E Stavrulaki & D K H Fong & D K J Lin, 2003. "Two-resource stochastic capacity planning employing a Bayesian methodology," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(11), pages 1198-1208, November.
    3. Bolton, Gary E., 2002. "Game theory's role in role-playing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 353-358.
    4. Gary Bolton & Duncan Fong & Paul Mosquin, 2003. "Bayes Factors with an Application to Experimental Economics," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 6(3), pages 311-325, November.
    5. Gary Bolton & Axel Ockenfels, 2005. "A stress test of fairness measures in models of social utility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(4), pages 957-982, June.
    6. Gary E. Bolton & Jordi Brandts & Elena Katok & Axel Ockenfels & Rami Zwick, "undated". "Testing Theories of Other-regarding Behavior," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-43, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
    7. Avishalom Tor & Oren Gazal‐Ayal & Stephen M. Garcia, 2010. "Fairness and the Willingness to Accept Plea Bargain Offers," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 97-116, March.

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