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Crisis cambiaria en un sistema con minidevaluaciones : el caso colombiano

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  • Humberto Mora A.
  • Juan Manuel Julio

    ()

  • Santiago Herrera A.

Abstract

Este trabajo incorpora el modelo de Grilli (1986), que contempla las posibilidades de ataques especulativos tanto de la compra como de venta de reservas internacionales, al modelo estimado empíricamente por Cumby-Van Wijnbergen (1989). El modelo resultante se estima para la economía colombiana en el período 1977-1991, y se obtiene un estimativo de la probabilidad ex - ante de abandono del régimen de minidevaluaciones, ya sea por expectativas de devaluación o por expectativas de revaluación de la tasa de cambio.

Suggested Citation

  • Humberto Mora A. & Juan Manuel Julio & Santiago Herrera A., 1991. "Crisis cambiaria en un sistema con minidevaluaciones : el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 10(20), pages 7-51, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:10:y:1991:i:20:p:7-51
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    Cited by:

    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.

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