Multivariate time series models of development for countries with transitional economies and prospects for post-COVID growth

The study aims to compare the economic achievements of the Visegrad Group (V4), the Baltic states (B3), Central Asia (CA4) and Balkan states (BA5), Kazakhstan on their way to joining the group of developed countries and to analyze the dynamics of their economic development. The results of studying the average annual growth rates of gross domestic product on the example of V4, B3, and Kazakhstan allowed for establishing the main patterns and trends of economic development in the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. The econometric modeling results indicate that an increase in employment levels contributes to per capita GDP growth. In turn, higher expenditures on domestic capital formation, the development of export-oriented industries, and the enhancement of regional specialization contribute to a more sustainable economic growth trajectory, as well as improved labor productivity, higher wages, and reduced unemployment. Poland and the Czech Republic exemplify this economic model. The study data confirm the possibility of solving the problem of countries with transitional economies entry into the number of developed countries by 2050 if the relevant conclusions are made from the analysis of the successful practice of V4 and B3 countries’ development.