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Did the UEFA Champions League winners start in an easy group?

Author

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  • Antonio Avila-Cano

    (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Málaga, Málaga, Spain)

  • Francisco Triguero-Ruiz

    (Department of Languages and Computer Sciences, University of Málaga, Málaga, Spain)

Abstract

Competitive balance indicates the degree of control participating teams have over a sports competition. Supporters look for excuses to justify their team’s defeat and the triumph of their rivals. If the competition has required a preliminary qualifying group stage, they will argue that the winning team was in an "easy group" from the start, and their team was unlucky to be in a "difficult group". It is therefore of interest to determine what is an "easy group" and what is a "difficult group". This is directly related to the concept of competitive balance. We have a wide range of indices to measure competitive balance. We will use the Distance to Competitive Balance, a standardized index that complies cardinality property. The perfectly unbalanced distribution is the truncated cascade, which allows the maximum value of concentration to be obtained. We focus our attention on the UEFA Champions League, before and after competition, and we measure the competitive balance of the qualifying stage groups between the 1999/2000 and 2022/2023 seasons. The composition of the UEFA Champions League groups seems to be balanced and has no influence on which team will be the champion. A highly competitive group will be more "difficult" in terms of qualifying than a highly concentrated one. Supporters say that their team was unlucky to be in a “difficult” group, but the data does not prove them right.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Avila-Cano & Francisco Triguero-Ruiz, 2024. "Did the UEFA Champions League winners start in an easy group?," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 3(3), pages 161-172, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bba:j00001:v:3:y:2024:i:3:p:161-172:d:228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Larsen & Aju J. Fenn & Erin Leanne Spenner, 2006. "The Impact of Free Agency and the Salary Cap on Competitive Balance in the National Football League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 7(4), pages 374-390, November.
    2. Jean-pascal Gayant & Nicolas Le Pape, 2012. "How to account for changes in the size of Sports Leagues? The Iso Competitive Balance Curves," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1715-1723.
    3. M. Kringstad & Bill Gerrard, 2004. "The Concepts of Competitive Balance and Uncertainty of Outcome," IASE Conference Papers 0412, International Association of Sports Economists.
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    1. Avila-Cano, Antonio & Triguero-Ruiz, Francisco & Ordóñez-de-Haro, José Manuel, 2025. "Scoring markets: Theory and application in sports economics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

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