Energy Mixes and Economic Policy in the EU27: An Evaluation of Alignment with EU Objectives Before the War in Ukraine

This paper evaluates the alignment of EU member states with the European Union’s environmental policy goals, focusing specifically on energy mix diversification and renewable energy shares in 2021. We chose this period due to the relative stability before the disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis, which have introduced politically motivated changes that may lack long-term stability. Adapting a conventional methodological framework to better align with current EU energy targets, we developed a modified diversification index to categorise countries based on their alignment with these goals. Our analysis identifies two main groups of outliers: the first includes countries with above-average renewable integration and strong alignment with EU objectives – Nordic countries (Sweden, Finland, and Denmark), as well as Latvia, Austria, Portugal, and Croatia. The second group includes countries lagging in alignment, such as Cyprus, Malta, Estonia, Poland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Ireland. Approximately half of the EU member states show significant potential to transition effectively to renewable energy sources, aided by favourable conditions like wind and solar resources and supportive infrastructure. We argue that the EU energy strategy should incorporate flexible frameworks that recognise the diverse capacities and resources of individual member states.