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The effect of a reduction in leading causes of death: potential gains in life expectancy

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  • Tsai, S.P.
  • Lee, E.S.
  • Hardy, R.J.

Abstract

The potential gains in total expectation of life and in the working life ages among the United States population are examined when the 3 leading causes of death are totally or partially eliminated. The impressive gains theoretically achieved by total elimination do not hold up under the more realistic assumption of partial elimination or reduction. The number of years gained by a newborn child, with a 30% reduction in major cardiovascular diseases would be 1.98 years, for malignant neoplasms 0.71 years, and for motor vehicle accidents 0.21 years. Application of the same reduction of the working ages, 15 to 70 years, results in a gain, of 0.43, 0.26, and 0.14 years, respectively for the 3 leading causes of death. Even with a scientific break-through in combating these causes of death, it appears that future gains in life expectancies for the working ages will not be spectacular. The implication of the results in relation to the current debate on the national health care policy is noted.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsai, S.P. & Lee, E.S. & Hardy, R.J., 1978. "The effect of a reduction in leading causes of death: potential gains in life expectancy," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 68(10), pages 966-971.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:1978:68:10:966-971_9
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    Cited by:

    1. Verna Keith & David Smith, 1988. "The current differential in black and white life expectancy," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 25(4), pages 625-632, November.
    2. Arora Suchit, 2012. "Understanding Aging during the Epidemiologic Transition," Working Papers 12-07, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    3. Kevin P. Brand, 2005. "Approximations and Heuristics for the “Cause‐Modified” Life Table," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 695-709, June.
    4. Guogui Huang & Fei Guo, 2022. "Loss of life expectancy due to respiratory infectious diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study in 195 countries and territories 1990–2017," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-43, March.
    5. Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1982. "Temporal trends in U. S. multiple cause of death mortality data: 1968 to 1977," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(4), pages 527-547, November.
    6. René Frey & Robert E. Leu, 1981. "Demographie und Inzidenz der öffentlichen Ausgaben im Gesundheitswesen," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 117(III), pages 319-336, September.
    7. Bampi, F. & Morro, A. & Jou, D., 1981. "Two continuum approaches to a wavelength-dependent description of heat conduction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 393-403.
    8. Stephen Newman, 1986. "A generalization of life expectancy which incorporates the age distribution of the population and its use in the measurement of the impact of mortality reduction," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 23(2), pages 261-274, May.

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