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Fiscal reaction under endogenous structural changes in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Andrei G. Simonassi

    (Federal University of Ceará (CAEN/UFC) and Research Fellow of CNPq, Brazil)

  • Ronaldo A. Arraes

    (Federal University of Ceará (UFC) and Business Program at University of Fortaleza (Unifor), Brazil)

  • Augusto Marcos C. de Sena

    (University of Ceará (UFC) and Business Program at University of Fortaleza (Unifor), Brazil)

Abstract

Regarding the importance of fiscal policy in smoothing the impact of shocks such as the international financial and economic crises, the paper analyzes the sustainability of the Brazilian fiscal policy by taking into consideration the possibility of multiple endogenous structural breaks on the coefficients of government reaction function. From monthly data in the period 1991–2008, tests on the reliable estimates dictate the occurrence of structural change in May 1994, and another in February 2003. There has been a situation of fiscal solvency in Brazil, but only from May 1994 the hitherto innocuous actions of government to formulate policies on public debt turn out to be significant, as it rose twofold after February 2003. This reinforces the existence of a more flexible alternative to implement strategic policy in Brazil, if an eventual alternative for increasing public spending is a way of hindering the effects of international financial crises without compromising the fiscal targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrei G. Simonassi & Ronaldo A. Arraes & Augusto Marcos C. de Sena, 2014. "Fiscal reaction under endogenous structural changes in Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 15(1), pages 68-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:15:y:2014:i:1:68_81
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Triches, Divanildo & Sleimann Bertussi, Luis Antônio, 2017. "Multicointegração e sustentabilidade da política fiscal no Brasil com regime de quebras estruturais (1997-2015)," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(3), September.
    2. Hela Ben Hassine Khalladi, 2019. "Fiscal fatigue, public debt limits and fiscal space in some MENA countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1005-1017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal reaction function; Endogenous structural changes; Fiscal solvency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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