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Does Twin Deficits Relationship Affect The Leading Indicators Of Crisis? Analysis Of The Us And Turkey In Light Of The 2008 Global Crisis


  • Tulin Tunc Deveci
  • Suleyman Degirmen

    () (Ankara University
    Mersin University)


Many theoretical and empirical researches have been written on the issue of crises often experienced by developing countries since the early 1990s. Moreover, the 2007 crisis started in the US has taken its place as a global crisis in the literature because of the most spreading crisis over the World since the 1929 Great Depression, and also experienced by a developed and powerful country. Crises have been predicted by advanced early warning systems according to movements in some macroeconomic variables. Unfortunately, that financial crisis mostly attached to speculative activities has complicated its prediction. In this paper, the relationship of twin deficits with crisis for the US and Turkey is analyzed by cointegration and granger causality tests along with computed speculative pressure index, in shed of the 2008 Global Crisis. Finally, it has been reached to uncertain results for Tukey while twin deficits is certainly effective for the US economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tulin Tunc Deveci & Suleyman Degirmen, 2013. "Does Twin Deficits Relationship Affect The Leading Indicators Of Crisis? Analysis Of The Us And Turkey In Light Of The 2008 Global Crisis," Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, Anadolu University, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:and:journl:v:13:y:2013:i:2:p:1-14

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    More about this item


    Financial Crises; Leading Indicators; Twin Deficits; Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus


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