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Domestic Demand Or Trade Led Growth Hypothesis For Southern Africa Development Community (Sadc) Countries? A Search For A New Development Paradigm

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  • Strike Mbulawa

    (Botho University, Faculty of Business & Accounting, Gaborone, Botswana)

Abstract

There have been weaker growth rates, globally, being coupled with an increase in trade protectionist policies, fall in commodity prices, and high economic uncertainty in developed nations. Developing countries face weak external positions due to overreliance on trade to improve growth. In this context, this study uses the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ADRL) approach to evaluate the applicability of the trade led and domestic demand led growth (DDLG) hypothesis using a sample of 12 SADC countries over the period 1994-2019. The DDLG hypothesis is more applicable over both the short and long run. The exports led growth hypothesis is not applicable while the imports explain growth in the long run. There is joint causality from domestic demand and imports to growth. Individual countries adjust to the long run equilibrium at different speeds which confirms short run heterogeneity while long term outcomes converge. The study offers some policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Strike Mbulawa, 2021. "Domestic Demand Or Trade Led Growth Hypothesis For Southern Africa Development Community (Sadc) Countries? A Search For A New Development Paradigm," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(49), pages 55-72, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aio:aucsse:v:1:y:2021:i:49:p:55-72
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Domestic Demand; Trade; Economic Growth; SADC; ADRL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures

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