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Grain Marketing Strategies Within and Across Lifetimes


  • Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa
  • Tomek, William G.


To reconcile the discrepancy between the efficient market hypothesis and grain marketing recommendations by advisory services and extension programs, simulated prices from an efficient market are used to compare performance of marketing practices over the long run and in individual 40-year periods. We find that an efficient market can generate diverse price behavior within finite samples, allowing for strategies that are inferior on average to perform relatively better, as frequently as half of the time in an average 40-year lifetime. Lifetime returns of strategies show considerable overlap, suggesting extremely low confidence in recommendations made based on short samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2007. "Grain Marketing Strategies Within and Across Lifetimes," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(01), April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:8598

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ronald A. Fleming & Bruce Babcock & Erda Wang, 1998. "Resource or Waste? The Economics of Swine Manure Storage and Management," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 96-113.
    2. Robert Innes, 2000. "The Economics of Livestock Waste and Its Regulation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 97-117.
    3. Ottmar Röhm & Stephan Dabbert, 2003. "Integrating Agri-Environmental Programs into Regional Production Models: An Extension of Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 254-265.
    4. Darrell J. Bosch & James W. Pease, 2004. "Manure Applications and Nutrient Standards," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(1), pages 14-25.
    5. Ribaudo, Marc & Kaplan, Jonathan D. & Christensen, Lee A. & Gollehon, Noel R. & Johansson, Robert C. & Breneman, Vincent E. & Aillery, Marcel P. & Agapoff, Jean & Peters, Mark, 2003. "Manure Management For Water Quality Costs To Animal Feeding Operations Of Applying Manure Nutrients To Land," Agricultural Economics Reports 33911, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    Cited by:

    1. Coble, Keith H. & Barnett, Barry J. & Riley, John Michael, 2013. "Challenging Belief in the Law of Small Numbers," 2013 AAEA: Crop Insurance and the Farm Bill Symposium, October 8-9, Louisville, KY 156958, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. repec:oup:revage:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:729-749. is not listed on IDEAS


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