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Practical Alternatives for Forecasting Corn and Soybean Basis in the Eastern Corn Belt throughout the Crop-Marketing Year

Author

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  • Thompson, Nathanael M.
  • Edwards, Aaron J.
  • Mintert, James R.
  • Hurt, Christopher A.

Abstract

This paper re-evaluates practical methods of forecasting corn and soybean basis in the eastern Corn Belt. The accuracy of forecast methods differs over the course of the crop-marketing year. At harvest, historical moving average forecasts perform best. Post-harvest forecasts may be improved at short forecast horizons (<8'12 weeks ahead) by combining historical moving averages and recent basis levels. Results suggest that using 3-to-5-year moving average forecasts for corn basis and a 2- or 5-year moving average for soybean basis from harvest through April. The accuracy of these corn and soybean basis forecasts decreases markedly during the summer months.

Suggested Citation

  • Thompson, Nathanael M. & Edwards, Aaron J. & Mintert, James R. & Hurt, Christopher A., 2019. "Practical Alternatives for Forecasting Corn and Soybean Basis in the Eastern Corn Belt throughout the Crop-Marketing Year," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:292332
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.292332
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    Cited by:

    1. Hayhurst, Emma & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2023. "Resilience of Grain Storage Markets to Upheaval in Futures Markets," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 4(2), April.

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