The Extent of Damage from the Nuclear Accident on Agricultural Produce from Fukushima Prefecture: A View from the Wholesale Market Trends

This report is aimed at revealing the details of and the factors for the impacts of the nuclear accident on major agricultural produce such as vegetables from Fukushima Prefecture by analyzing the relationship between wholesale quantity and price, and comparing it before (average of 2007-2010) and after (2011 and thereafter) the disaster. Insights are drawn from a combination of wholesale market data sets provided by Agriculture & Livestock Industries Corporation (ALIC) and survey interviews with key informants such as wholesalers at Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market, JA Zen-Noh (National Federation of Agricultural Co-operative Associations) Fukushima, Utsukushi-Fukushima Agricultural Corporations Association, and Agricultural Council in Fukushima Prefecture, as well as leading supermarket chains. First, at Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market (Tokyo Market) and Osaka Central Wholesale Market (Osaka Market), normal relations between quantity and price have not been observed since the earthquake, which is particularly so in Tokyo Market, indicating the emergence of structural changes. Second, three major trends deserve attention in Tokyo Market, which is the largest buyer of Fukushima crops: (i) On the whole, both sales quantities and unit prices have been declining since the earthquake. Moreover, the trend has worsened in 2012 compared with 2011. (ii) On the other hand, some commodities remained unaffected in 2011. (iii) Unit prices of some commodities were on rebounding trends from 2011 to 2012. Third, the aforementioned three trends are underlain by multiple factors rather than single factors. Although the normal quantity-price relation holds true in regard to the essential goods that faced a supply shortage from other domestic sites in the peak season, for other goods there are cases in which producers lost their bargaining power over price in the context of compensation in place by TEPCO for nuclear damage, thereby inducing trend (i). In light of the uncertainty over the duration of TEPCO's compensation, it will be necessary to formulate and implement specific plans on regaining supply capacity and bargaining power in order for producers to sustain themselves whenever the compensation program terminates.