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What can price volatility tell us about market efficiency? Conditional heteroscedasticity in historical commodity price series

Author

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  • Péter Földvári

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary)

  • Bas van Leeuwen

    (Faculty of Humanities, Free University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

The development in the working of markets has been an important topic in economic history for decades. The volatility of market prices is often used as an indicator of market efficiency in the broadest sense. Yet, the way in which volatility is estimated often makes it difficult to compare price volatility across regions or over time for two reasons. First, if prices are non-stationary, the variance is inflated. Second, the variance of commodity prices contains information on a number of region- and time-specific factors that are not related to market efficiency. Hence, the popular coefficient of variation and related indicators are not adequate measures of the efficiency of markets and are incomparable across regions. As a solution, we suggest using a conditional heteroscedasticity model to estimate the residual (conditional) variance of commodity prices. This measure reflects how markets react to unexpected events and can therefore be seen as a measure of market efficiency. Using this approach on grain prices from the Early Modern Pisa, Paris, Vienna, and Japan, we find that the residual price volatility had declined (and market efficiency increased) in the European markets in the late sixteenth century while it remained stable in Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Péter Földvári & Bas van Leeuwen, 2011. "What can price volatility tell us about market efficiency? Conditional heteroscedasticity in historical commodity price series," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(2), pages 165-186, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:5:y:2011:i:2:p:165-186
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-010-0055-y
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jalilov, Shokhrukh-Mirzo & Rahman, Wakilur & Palash, Salauddin & Jahan, Hasneen & Mainuddin, Mohammed & Ward, Frank A., 2022. "Exploring strategies to control the cost of food security: Evidence from Bangladesh," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. van Zanden, Jan Luiten & Földvári, Péter & van Leeuwen, Bas, 2011. "Long-run patterns in market efficiency and the genesis of the market economy: Markets around the Mediterranean from Nebuchadnez," CEPR Discussion Papers 8521, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. G. Geoffrey Booth & Sanders S. Chang, 2017. "Domestic exchange rate determination in Renaissance Florence," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(3), pages 405-445, September.
    4. Rafael, Dobado-González & Alfredo, García-Hiernaux & David, Guerrero-Burbano, 2013. "West versus East: Early Globalization and the Great Divergence," MPRA Paper 48773, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market efficiency; Conditional heteroscedasticity; Price volatility; Time-series analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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