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Demografische Effekte auf das künftige Arbeitskräfteangebot in Deutschland - eine Dekompositionsanalyse -

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  • Johann Fuchs

Abstract

This paper provides a decomposition of the projected change in the overall labour force into three parts. The first, called the “demographic component”, shows the effects of fertility, mortality and a changing age structure of the population. The second effect is the migration component. This part is due to the cumulative net inflow of migrants, but includes their reproductive behaviour as well. Changes in the participation rates give the third effect, the participation rate component. The decomposition was done by comparing different labour force scenarios up to 2050. The method can easily be extended for decomposition into more than three factors. According to our results, the negative impact of the demographic factor on the labour force is very clear and is caused by the projected ageing of population to a great extent. Neither a strong increase in labour participation nor high immigration flows can stop the downward trend in labour force. Keeping the labour force constant requires an annual net migration of about 400,000 persons. This would be approximately twice as much as during the last 50 years. As the age structure is almost given and increasing fertility rates only have positive effects in the very long run, the projected decline in labour force should be taken as a fact.

Suggested Citation

  • Johann Fuchs, 2009. "Demografische Effekte auf das künftige Arbeitskräfteangebot in Deutschland - eine Dekompositionsanalyse -," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 129(4), pages 571-595.
    • Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqsjb:v129_y2009_i1_q1_p571-595
    DOI: 10.3790/schm.129.4.571
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    Cited by:

    1. Bofinger, Peter & Franz, Wolfgang & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice & Wiegard, Wolfgang, 2010. "Chancen für einen stabilen Aufschwung. Jahresgutachten 2010/11 [Chances for a stable upturn. Annual Report 2010/11]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201011.
    2. Fabian Busch & Robert Fenge & Carsten Ochsen, 2021. "Do Firms Hire More Older Workers? Evidence from Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 9219, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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