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Aggregate Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence: A Sectoral Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Filippucci
  • Peter Gal
  • Matthias Schief

Abstract

Artificial intelligence raises productivity in specific tasks, but its aggregate impact remains debated. We project productivity gains from AI for 65 US industries and aggregate them in a multisector general-equilibrium framework, showing that AI could contribute up to 0.9 percentage points to annual aggregate TFP growth over the next decade. Gains are largest in knowledge-intensive services and smallest in manual task-intensive activities. With uneven sectoral gains, a Baumol effect could limit aggregate growth, but this channel remains quantitatively small when the cross-sectoral elasticity of substitution in final demand is sufficiently large or when factors can freely reallocate across sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Filippucci & Peter Gal & Matthias Schief, 2026. "Aggregate Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence: A Sectoral Perspective," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 116, pages 31-35, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:116:y:2026:p:31-35
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20261035
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production
    • M15 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - IT Management
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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