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Aggregate Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence: A Sectoral Perspective

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  • Francesco Filippucci
  • Peter Gal
  • Matthias Schief

Abstract

Artificial intelligence raises productivity in specific tasks, but its aggregate impact remains debated. We project productivity gains from AI for 65 US industries and aggregate them in a multisector general-equilibrium framework, showing that AI could contribute up to 0.9 percentage points to annual aggregate TFP growth over the next decade. Gains are largest in knowledge-intensive services and smallest in manual task-intensive activities. With uneven sectoral gains, a Baumol effect could limit aggregate growth, but this channel remains quantitatively small when the cross-sectoral elasticity of substitution in final demand is sufficiently large or when factors can freely reallocate across sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Filippucci & Peter Gal & Matthias Schief, 2026. "Aggregate Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence: A Sectoral Perspective," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 116, pages 31-35, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:116:y:2026:p:31-35
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20261035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William D. Nordhaus, 2000. "Alternative Methods for Measuring Productivity Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1282, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Ali Merali, 2024. "Scaling Laws for Economic Productivity: Experimental Evidence in LLM-Assisted Translation," Papers 2409.02391, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production
    • M15 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - IT Management
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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