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Anticipatory Migration Responses to Rural Climate Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Esteban J. Quiñones
  • Jenna Nobles
  • Fernando Riosmena
  • Raphael Nawrotzki

Abstract

Despite increased incidence and severity of climate shocks associated with climate change, observed levels of adaptation remain low. To assess if individuals adapt to the heat-induced crop losses of neighboring households in rural, agriculturally reliant communities, we integrate panel socioeconomic and demographic data from rural Mexico with high temporal and spatial resolution weather data. We find evidence of (ex ante) domestic migration that is plausibly an anticipatory response to the perception of increased risks of future heat-induced crop losses. This study highlights the salience of anticipatory adaptation and the relevance of learning from others in the context of climate risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Esteban J. Quiñones & Jenna Nobles & Fernando Riosmena & Raphael Nawrotzki, 2023. "Anticipatory Migration Responses to Rural Climate Shocks," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 367-371, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:113:y:2023:p:367-71
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231127
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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