IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/apandp/v109y2019p557-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Noisy Memory and Over-Reaction to News

Author

Listed:
  • Rava Azeredo da Silveira
  • Michael Woodford

Abstract

We propose a model of optimal decision-making subject to a memory constraint. The constraint is a limit on the complexity of memory measured using Shannon's mutual information, as in models of rational inattention. We show that the model implies that both forecasts and actions will exhibit idiosyncratic random variation; that beliefs will fluctuate forever around the rational-expectations (perfect-memory) beliefs with a variance that does not fall to zero; and that more recent news will be given disproportionate weight. The model provides a simple explanation for a number of features of expectations in laboratory and field settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Rava Azeredo da Silveira & Michael Woodford, 2019. "Noisy Memory and Over-Reaction to News," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 557-561, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:109:y:2019:p:557-61
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20191049
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20191049
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20191049.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:109:y:2019:p:557-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael P. Albert). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.