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Work from Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse

Author

Listed:
  • Arpit Gupta
  • Vrinda Mittal
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abstract

We show remote work led to large drops in lease revenues, occupancy, and market rents in the commercial office sector. We revalue New York City office buildings, taking into account both the cash flow and discount rate implications of these shocks, and find a 46 percent decline in long-run value. For all US office markets combined, we find a $556.8 billion value destruction. Higher-quality buildings were buffered against these trends due to a flight to quality, while lower-quality offices are at risk of becoming a stranded asset. These valuation changes have repercussions for financial stability and local public finances.

Suggested Citation

  • Arpit Gupta & Vrinda Mittal & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2026. "Work from Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 116(2), pages 674-709, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:116:y:2026:i:2:p:674-709
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20231619
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Laura Ketter & Todd Morris & Lizi Yu, 2025. "A new equilibrium: COVID-19 lockdowns and WFH persistence," Papers 2506.16671, arXiv.org.
    3. Lalinsky, Tibor & Anyfantaki, Sofia & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Bergeaud, Antonin & Bun, Maurice & Bunel, Simon & Colciago, Andrea & De Mulder, Jan & Lopez, Beatriz Gonzalez & Jarvis, Valerie & Krasno, 2024. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and policy support on productivity," Occasional Paper Series 341, European Central Bank.
    4. Sandro Heiniger & Winfried Koeniger & Michael Lechner, 2022. "The Heterogeneous Response of Real Estate Asset Prices to a Global Shock," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-86, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Olszewski Krzysztof & Trojanowski Dariusz & Łaszek Jacek, 2024. "Low Interest Rates and Uncreative Destruction in the Office Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 32(2), pages 90-99.
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    11. Chen, Yi-Hsuan & Kräussl, Roman & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2023. "The pricing of digital art," CFS Working Paper Series 716, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    12. Abdul Rahman, Mohd Shahril & Awang, Mariah & Jagun, Zainab Toyin, 2024. "Polycrisis: Factors, impacts, and responses in the housing market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    13. Gilles Duranton & Jessie Handbury, 2023. "COVID and Cities, Thus Far," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 29(2), pages 6-52, October.
    14. Sr Dr Tham Kuen-wei & Chai Woei-Chyi & Dr Cheng Chin-Tiong & Dr Alan Chong Kim-Wing & Pang Khai-Shuen, 2024. "A Review of COVID-19 Impacts on Global Residential Property Prices and Key Trends: UK, China, Malaysia, Singapore and United States," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(12), pages 2038-2059, December.
    15. Jan K. Brueckner & David R. Agrawal, 2025. "Work-from-Home and Wage Convergence Across Cities: An Exploration," CESifo Working Paper Series 12150, CESifo.
    16. Jiang, Erica Xuewei & Matvos, Gregor & Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2024. "Monetary tightening and U.S. bank fragility in 2023: Mark-to-market losses and uninsured depositor runs?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    17. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2023. "The remote work revolution: Impact on real estate values and the urban environment: 2023 AREUEA Presidential Address," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(1), pages 7-48, January.
    18. Jan K. Brueckner, 2024. "Work-from-Home and Cities: An Elementary Spatial Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 11121, CESifo.
    19. Xudong An & Lawrence R. Cordell & Nicholas Smith, 2023. "CMBS Market Evolution and Emerging Risks," Working Papers 23-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    20. Daniel Broxterman & Lawrence R. Cordell & Casey Dougal & Xingliang Ma, 2025. "Does Skin in the Game Align Incentives? The Case of CRE CLOs," Working Papers 25-43, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    21. Lee, Kangoh, 2023. "Working from home as an economic and social change: A review," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    22. Jorck, Gerrit von & Börger, Tobias & Ghirardello, Linda & Meyerhoff, Jürgen & Praetorius, Barbara, 2025. "The impact of work arrangements on the choice to work from home: a discrete-continuous choice experiment," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 59, pages 1-029.
    23. Yijia Wen & Li Fang & Qing Li, 2022. "Commercial Real Estate Market at a Crossroads: The Impact of COVID-19 and the Implications to Future Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, October.
    24. Chun, Hyunbae & Kwon, Eunjee & Yang, Dongyun, 2024. "The rise of e-commerce and generational consumption inequality: Evidence from COVID-19 in South Korea," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    25. Brueckner, Jan K. & Sayantani, S., 2023. "Intercity impacts of work-from-home with both remote and non-remote workers," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • M51 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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