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Forecasting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Results for Six Tropical Cyclones in May 2002

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  • HBo-Wen Shen

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, USA)

Abstract

Recent advances in global weather modeling and supercomputing technologies have led to promising simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs) that improve our understanding of the impact of scale interactions on model’s predictability. In this mini review, we document the model’s performance in simulating the genesis of six TCs in association with a large -scale tropical convective system that can be identified as an eastward moving Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in May 2002. It is shown that the genesis of the six TCs can be predicted two or three days in advance, supporting the hypothesis that a large-scale system (i.e., the MJO in this case) may provide determinism in the simulation of TC precursors. The current study and earlier studies motivate us to revisit the fundamental role of the butterfly effect in the system’s stability within high-dimensional Lorenz models and global weather/climate models, which is subject to a future study

Suggested Citation

  • HBo-Wen Shen, 2017. "Forecasting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Results for Six Tropical Cyclones in May 2002," Oceanography & Fisheries Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 4(1), pages 1-6, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:adp:jofoaj:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:1-6
    DOI: 10.19080/OFOAJ.2017.04.555626
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