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Significance tests harm progress in forecasting

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Jason W. Beckstead, 2007. "A note on determining the number of cues used in judgment analysis studies: The issue of type II error," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 2, pages 317-325, October.
  2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:2:y:2007:i::p:317-325 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. P�r Österholm, 2014. "Survey data and short-term forecasts of Swedish GDP growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 135-139, January.
  4. Schneider, Jesper W., 2013. "Caveats for using statistical significance tests in research assessments," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 50-62.
  5. Andreas Schwab & Eric Abrahamson & William H. Starbuck & Fiona Fidler, 2011. "PERSPECTIVE---Researchers Should Make Thoughtful Assessments Instead of Null-Hypothesis Significance Tests," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(4), pages 1105-1120, August.
  6. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
  7. Ahlburg, Dennis & Lindh, Thomas, 2007. "Long-run income forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 533-538.
  8. Jesper W. Schneider, 2015. "Null hypothesis significance tests. A mix-up of two different theories: the basis for widespread confusion and numerous misinterpretations," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 102(1), pages 411-432, January.
  9. Yelland, Phillip M., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting of parts demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 374-396, April.
  10. Michael Vössing & Niklas Kühl & Matteo Lind & Gerhard Satzger, 2022. "Designing Transparency for Effective Human-AI Collaboration," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 877-895, June.
  11. Barrera, Carlos, 2013. "El sistema de predicción desagregada: Una evaluación de las proyecciones de inflación 2006-2011," Working Papers 2013-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  12. Woodside, Arch G., 2020. "Interventions as experiments: Connecting the dots in forecasting and overcoming pandemics, global warming, corruption, civil rights violations, misogyny, income inequality, and guns," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 212-218.
  13. West, David & Dellana, Scott, 2011. "An empirical analysis of neural network memory structures for basin water quality forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 777-803, July.
  14. Cheng, Gang & Yang, Yuhong, 2015. "Forecast combination with outlier protection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 223-237.
  15. Jan-Erik Antipin & Farid Jimmy Boumediene & Pär Österholm, 2014. "Forecasting Inflation Using Constant Gain Least Squares," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1-2), pages 2-15, June.
  16. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  17. Raoufina, Karine, 2016. "Forecasting Employment Growth in Sweden Using a Bayesian VAR Model," Working Papers 144, National Institute of Economic Research.
  18. Litsiou, Konstantia & Polychronakis, Yiannis & Karami, Azhdar & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Relative performance of judgmental methods for forecasting the success of megaprojects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1185-1196.
  19. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 69-80, January.
  20. Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Litsa, Akrivi & Petropoulos, Fotios & Bougioukos, Vasileios & Khammash, Marwan, 2015. "Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1785-1791.
  21. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 57(3), pages 531-550, September.
  22. Malcolm Wright & J. Scott Armstrong, 2008. "The Ombudsman: Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge?," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 38(2), pages 125-139, April.
  23. Jan-Erik Antipin & Farid Jimmy Boumediene & Pär Österholm, 2014. "On the Usefulness of Constant Gain Least Squares when Forecasting the Unemployment Rate," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 60(4), pages 315-336.
  24. Fildes, Robert & Wei, Yingqi & Ismail, Suzilah, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of econometric models of air passenger traffic flows using multiple error measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 902-922, July.
  25. Syntetos, Aris A. & Kholidasari, Inna & Naim, Mohamed M., 2016. "The effects of integrating management judgement into OUT levels: In or out of context?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 853-863.
  26. Pär Österholm, 2010. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.
  27. Adusei Jumah & Robert M. Kunst, 2016. "Optimizing time-series forecasts for inflation and interest rates using simulation and model averaging," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(45), pages 4366-4378, September.
  28. Crone, Sven F. & Hibon, Michèle & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2011. "Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 635-660.
  29. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2007. "The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(3), pages 287-299, June.
  30. Kauko, Karlo & Palmroos, Peter, 2014. "The Delphi method in forecasting financial markets— An experimental study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 313-327.
  31. Nicholson, Alan, 2015. "Travel time reliability benefits: Allowing for correlation," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 14-21.
  32. Soyer, Emre & Hogarth, Robin M., 2012. "The illusion of predictability: How regression statistics mislead experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 695-711.
  33. Maria Billstam & Kristina Frändén & Johan Samuelsson & Pär Österholm, 2017. "Quasi-Real-Time Data of the Economic Tendency Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, May.
  34. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Forecasting inflation in an inflation-targeting regime: A role for informative steady-state priors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 248-264, April.
  35. Dantas, Tiago Mendes & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2018. "Improving time series forecasting: An approach combining bootstrap aggregation, clusters and exponential smoothing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 748-761.
  36. Hjelm, Göran & Jönsson, Kristian, 2010. "In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy," Working Papers 115, National Institute of Economic Research.
  37. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis & Rindermann, Heiner & Christainsen, Gregory, 2014. "Cognitive capital, governance, and the wealth of nations," MPRA Paper 57563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Savio, Nicolas D. & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2013. "A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 311-321.
  39. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott & Jones, Randall J. & Cuzán, Alfred G., 2014. "Combining forecasts: An application to elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 43-54.
  40. Hirschauer Norbert & Grüner Sven & Mußhoff Oliver & Frey Ulrich & Theesfeld Insa & Wagner Peter, 2016. "Die Interpretation des p-Wertes – Grundsätzliche Missverständnisse," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(5), pages 557-575, October.
  41. Wright, Malcolm & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge?," MPRA Paper 4149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  42. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
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