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Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets

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  1. Justin Wolfers profile in The American
    by Don Arthur in Club Troppo on 2007-05-27 13:42:10

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Cited by:

  1. Strijbis, Oliver & Arnesen, Sveinung, 2019. "Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 408-419.
  2. Tai, Chung-Ching & Lin, Hung-Wen & Chie, Bin-Tzong & Tung, Chen-Yuan, 2019. "Predicting the failures of prediction markets: A procedure of decision making using classification models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 297-312.
  3. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Paper series 42_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  4. Andrew Leigh, 2008. "Bringing home the bacon: an empirical analysis of the extent and effects of pork-barreling in Australian politics," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 279-299, October.
  5. Chih‐Yu Chin & Cheng‐Lung Wang, 2021. "A new insight into combining forecasts for elections: The role of social media," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 132-143, January.
  6. Liam J. A. Lenten & Jordi McKenzie, 2018. "The Times They Are A†Changin': On the Ephemeral Nature of Music Polls," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(304), pages 51-63, March.
  7. Hamish Greenop‐Roberts, 2022. "Forecasting Federal Elections: New Data From 2010–2019 and a Discussion of Alternative and Emerging Methods," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 25-39, March.
  8. Agustin Casas & Yarine Fawaz & Andre Trindade, 2016. "Surprise Me If You Can: The Influence Of Newspaper Endorsements In U.S. Presidential Elections," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1484-1498, July.
  9. Andrew Leigh & Mark Mcleish, 2009. "Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 210-222, June.
  10. Lennart Sjöberg, 2009. "Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1-18.
  11. Jeffrey S. DeSimone & Courtney LaFountain, 2007. "Still the Economy, Stupid: Economic Voting in the 2004 Presidential Election," NBER Working Papers 13549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Andrew Leigh, 2009. "Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 163-181, April.
  13. Ray Fair & Cowles Discussion & Yale Working, 2006. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2643, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
  14. Khan, Urmee & Lieli, Robert P., 2018. "Information flow between prediction markets, polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 696-710.
  15. repec:rim:rimwps:42-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Bunker, Kenneth, 2020. "A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1407-1419.
  17. Alex Luiz Ferreira & Sérgio Naruhiko Sakurai, 2013. "Personal charisma or the economy?: Macroeconomic indicators of presidential approval ratings in Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 14(3–4), pages 214-232.
  18. Phillip Metaxas & Andrew Leigh, 2013. "The Predictive Power of Political Pundits: Prescient or Pitiful?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4261, CESifo.
  19. Ray Fair & Cowles Discussion & Yale Working, 2006. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2643, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
  20. Mark Richard & Jan Vecer, 2021. "Efficiency Testing of Prediction Markets: Martingale Approach, Likelihood Ratio and Bayes Factor Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, February.
  21. Goodell, John W. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 162-171.
  22. David Peetz & Barbara Pocock, 2009. "An Analysis of Workplace Representatives, Union Power and Democracy in Australia," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 623-652, December.
  23. Rajiv Sethi & Julie Seager & Emily Cai & Daniel M. Benjamin & Fred Morstatter, 2021. "Models, Markets, and the Forecasting of Elections," Papers 2102.04936, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
  24. Reade, J. James & Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 2019. "Polls to probabilities: Comparing prediction markets and opinion polls," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 336-350.
  25. Sjöberg, Lennart, 2006. "Are all crowds equally wise? A comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2006:9, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 08 Sep 2008.
  26. Joyce E. Berg & John Geweke & Thomas A. Rietz, 2010. "Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction markets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 163-186, July.
  27. Makram El-Shagi, 2021. "Political Uncertainty: A High Frequency Approach," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2021/03, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
  28. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2015. "Political risk, investor attention and the Scottish Independence referendum," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 163-171.
  29. Ahmed, Rashad & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2022. "Regional heterogeneity and U.S. presidential elections: Real-time 2020 forecasts and evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 662-687.
  30. John Fry & Andrew Brint, 2017. "Bubbles, Blind-Spots and Brexit," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-15, July.
  31. Rajiv Sethi & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2016. "Belief Aggregation with Automated Market Makers," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 155-178, June.
  32. Davis, Brent, 2015. "Forecasting Elections: Do Prediction Markets Tells Us Anything More than the Polls?," MPRA Paper 65505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Robert Reig & Ramona Schoder, 2010. "Forecasting Accuracy: Comparing Prediction Markets And Surveys – An Experimental Study," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 4(3), pages 1-19.
  34. Brown, Alasdair & Reade, J. James & Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 2019. "When are prediction market prices most informative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 420-428.
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