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Zins- und Geldmengensteuerung in der offenen Volkswirtschaft: Eine Referenz an William Poole (und zugleich eine Kritik an der "Neuen Keynesianischen Makroökonomik")


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  • Sell, Friedrich L.
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    Given all the evidence supporting Milton Friedman's proposition that inflation is now and every-where a monetary phenomenon, it seems that we are wrong when we tend to ignore the behaviour of the monetary aggregates at our peril. The total neglect of information about the monetary aggregates in the Taylor rule is a strong signal into that erroneous direction. Moreover, so-called "New Keynesianism" has put forward that there is no more need to treat the money market equilibrium in an "LM-setting". Our paper goes back to William Poole's analysis of interest rate and money supply rules and extends his earlier analysis to the open economy, alternative exchange rate regimes and various types of shocks. The results achieved confirm not only that the inclusion of the money market equilibrium enhances the possibilities to compare the costs and benefits of different monetary strategies, but also suggests that monetary strategies such as Taylor rules can be improved when opening up natural avenues to extend the rule by considering monetary aggregates. -- Wie wir in diesem Beitrag zu zeigen versuchen, ist der Denkansatz von William Poole - also die Überprüfung unterschiedlicher geldpolitischer Konzepte anhand der Erfolgskriterien "Output- und Preisvariabilität" - immer noch hoch modern. Es war an der Zeit, ihn, wie in diesem Beitrag, systematisch für die Perspektive offener Volkswirtschaften zu erweitern. Für dieses Vorgehen gibt es sowohl theoretische als auch praktische Gründe: Es kann nicht sinnvoll sein, wie es Vertreter der "Neuen Keynesianischen Makroökonomik" tun, Geldmengenregeln aus der monetären Makroökonomik auszublenden, indem man sich des Geldmarktgleichgewichts entledigt und von vorn herein die Befolgung von Zinsregeln durch die Notenbank unterstellt. Zum anderen erscheint die gegenwärtige einseitige Fokussierung von flexiblen Zinsregeln im Sinne von Taylor auch der Empirie von Notenbanken nicht gerecht zu werden. Neuere Untersuchungen weisen nämlich mit überzeugenden empirischen Resultaten nach, dass eine um eine Geldmengenregel entsprechend ergänzte Taylor-Regel für die Bundesbank im Zeitraum zwischen 1975 und 1998 deren Politik am besten abbildet.

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    Paper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 2005,2.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20052

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    Keywords: Schockabsorption; Geldpolitische Strategien; Wechselkursregime; Absorption of Shocks; Strategic Monetary Policy; Exchange Rate Regimes;

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    1. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    2. William Poole, 1999. "Monetary policy rules?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-12.
    3. Poole, William, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216, May.
    4. Peter Bofinger & Eric Mayer, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the Euro Area with Different Assumptions on the Phillips Curve," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 291-305, July.
    5. David Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," NBER Working Papers 7461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Guender, Alfred V. & Tam, Julie, 2004. "On the performance of nominal income targeting as a strategy for monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 143-163, March.
    7. Sell, Friedrich L., 2004. "Währungspolitik im Dienste von Entwicklung : Immer noch ein Forschungsprogramm!," Working Papers in Economics 2004,2, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group.
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