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Währungspolitik im Dienste von Entwicklung : Immer noch ein Forschungsprogramm!

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  • Sell, Friedrich L.
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    Abstract

    In diesem Beitrag formulieren wir zunächst einige Hypothesen über die möglichen Beiträge der Währungspolitik zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung vor dem Hintergrund des berühmten Trilemmas, das prinzipiell für jede Währungsordnung gelöst werden muss. Anschließend lassen wir in einem Überblick die Erfahrungen Revue passieren, welche von den Entwicklungsländern in den vergangenen 30 Jahren mit unterschiedlichen Wechselkursregimes gesammelt wurden. Dabei stellt sich heraus, dass es neben dem von Mundell (1968) formulierten "klassischen" Trilemma für die Währungsordnung ein weiteres gibt, welches sich auf die Gestaltung bzw. Kontrolle der internen Finanzmärkte bezieht und gerade von Schwellenländern beachtet werden muss. Die Alternativen "flexible" versus "feste" Paritäten können sinnvollerweise nur in Verbindung mit einem bestimmten Entwicklungsstand der internen Finanzmärkte und der Entscheidung für einen der alternativen Kontrollmechanismen gewählt werden. Zueinander passende Lösungen beider Trilemmas lassen dann auch positive Entwicklungsbeiträge erwarten und erlauben es sogar, Empfehlungen für Chinas aktuelle Wechselkurspolitik abzuleiten. -- In this paper, we first formulate a number of working hypotheses about the likely contributions of exchange rate policy to economic development on the background of the famous "trilemma" which exchange rate policy has to face. Then, we broadly review experiences made by developing countries with different exchange rate regimes in the past 30 years. We find that in addition to the classical trilemma put forward by Bob Mundell (1968) vis-a-vis the exchange rate system, emerging economies have to solve at least one more trilemma located in their domestic financial markets. We show that the alternatives "flexible" or "fixed" exchange rates can only be chosen based on sound economic reasoning with regard to the stance and control of domestic financial markets. From this perspective, one can expect contributions to economic development and even give some advice to China and its current exchange rate policy.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 2004,2.

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    Date of creation: 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20042

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    Keywords: Währungsordnung; Entwicklung; Tinbergen-Problem; Finanzmarktkrisen; Exchange Rate System; Economic Development; Tinbergen Problem; Financial Crises;

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    Cited by:
    1. Sell, Friedrich L., 2005. "Zins- und Geldmengensteuerung in der offenen Volkswirtschaft: Eine Referenz an William Poole (und zugleich eine Kritik an der "Neuen Keynesianischen Makroökonomik")," Working Papers in Economics 2005,2, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group.
    2. Sell, Friedrich L. & Kermer, Silvio, 2006. "William Poole in der modernen Makroökonomik: Exegese des ursprünglichen Beitrags und seiner Fortentwicklungen für die offene Volkswirtschaft," Working Papers in Economics 2006,3, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group.

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