IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/thiwps/39.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ist Peak Oil Geschichte?

Author

Listed:
  • Baic, Boris
  • Clostermann, Jörg

Abstract

Am 3. Juli 2008 erreichte der Ölpreis (WTI) mit über 145 USDollar je Barrel seinen historischen Rekordwert. Dieses Ereignis galt als eine eindeutige Bestätigung der Befürworter der Peak- Oil Theorie, die seit Jahrzehnten vor den wirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen einer unvermeidlichen Verknappung von Rohöl warnten. Deren pessimistischste Anhänger befürchteten eine unausweichlich starke Reduzierung der Erdölförderung, und in der Folge sogar einen Zusammenbruch der Wirtschaftssysteme, auf Grund stark steigender Preise. Die Plausibilität langfristig steigender Ölpreise ist nicht von der Hand zu weisen. Allerdings zeigen Überlegungen zum Öl-Angebot und -Nachfrage, dass mit einer plötzlichen Verknappung von Öl wohl auch auf längere Sicht nicht zu rechnen ist. Die Peak-Oil-Debatte hat zweifelsohne die unbestrittene Endlichkeit des Rohstoffs "Erdöl" in das Bewusstsein vieler Menschen gerückt. Aber neue Technologien wie Hydraulic Fracturing, die Ölsandgewinnung und verbesserte Fördermethoden sorgen dafür, dass der von den Peak-Oil Befürwortern postulierte "Tipping-Point" noch nicht erreicht wurde. Ein Versorgungsproblem ist unter Berücksichtigung der aktuellen Entwicklungen auf absehbare Zeit als nicht sehr wahrscheinlich einzustufen. Vielmehr zeigt sich, dass die größere wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderung der Zukunft sein wird, Öl als CO2-emittiertenden Energieträger zu substituieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Baic, Boris & Clostermann, Jörg, 2016. "Ist Peak Oil Geschichte?," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 39, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:thiwps:39
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/202590/1/thi-abwp-39.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    3. Olli Tahvonen, 1997. "Fossil Fuels, Stock Externalities, and Backstop Technology," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 855-874, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grimaud, Andre & Rouge, Luc, 2005. "Polluting non-renewable resources, innovation and growth: welfare and environmental policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 109-129, June.
    2. Renaud Coulomb & Fanny Henriet, 2010. "Carbon price and optimal extraction of a polluting fossil fuel with restricted carbon capture," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564852, HAL.
    3. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Magne, Bertrand & Moreaux, Michel, 2006. "A Hotelling model with a ceiling on the stock of pollution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2875-2904, December.
    4. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Magné, Bertrand & Moreaux, Michel, 2008. "A dynamic model of food and clean energy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1181-1203, April.
    5. Di Maria, Corrado & Smulders, Sjak & van der Werf, Edwin, 2012. "Absolute abundance and relative scarcity: Environmental policy with implementation lags," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 104-119.
    6. Jouvet, Pierre-André & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "Learning-by-doing and the costs of a backstop for energy transition and sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 122-132.
    7. Huhtala, Anni & Toppinen, Anne & Boman, Mattias, 2003. "When the theory is not enough - valuation of forest resources with "efficiency" prices in practice," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 205-222.
    8. Sjak Smulders & Edwin Van Der Werf, 2008. "Climate policy and the optimal extraction of high‐ and low‐carbon fossil fuels," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(4), pages 1421-1444, November.
    9. Barbiroli, Giancarlo & Focacci, Antonio, 1999. "An appropriate mechanism of fuels pricing for sustainable development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 625-636, October.
    10. Kollenbach, Gilbert, 2017. "Unilateral climate Policy and the Green Paradox: Extraction Costs matter," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168245, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Frederick Van Der Ploeg & Cees Withagen, 2014. "Growth, Renewables, And The Optimal Carbon Tax," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(1), pages 283-311, February.
    12. Pommeret, Aude & Ricci, Francesco & Schubert, Katheline, 2022. "Critical raw materials for the energy transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Magné, Bertrand & Moreaux, Michel, 2003. "From Coal to Clean Energy : Hotelling with a Limit on the Stock of Externalities," IDEI Working Papers 229, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    14. Choiniere, Conrad J., 2000. "Renewable Energy And Greenhouse Gas Mitigation," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21813, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Huhtala, Anni & Toppinen, Anne & Boman, Mattias, 2001. "An Environmental Accountant`s Dilemma: Are Stumpage Prices Reliable Indicators of Resource Scarcity?," Working Papers 77, National Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Leach, Andrew & Moreaux, Michel, 2012. "Cycles in nonrenewable resource prices with pollution and learning-by-doing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1448-1461.
    17. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen, 2022. "Did OPEC change its behaviour after the November 2014 meeting?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2285-2305, May.
    18. Coulomb, Renaud & Henriet, Fanny, 2018. "The Grey Paradox: How fossil-fuel owners can benefit from carbon taxation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 206-223.
    19. VARDAR, N. Baris, 2013. "Imperfect resource substitution and optimal transition to clean technologies," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013072, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    20. Nachtigall, Daniel & Rübbelke, Dirk, 2016. "The green paradox and learning-by-doing in the renewable energy sector," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 74-92.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:thiwps:39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.thi.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.