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Correlated default with incomplete information

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  • Giesecke, Kay
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    Abstract

    We propose a model of correlated multi-firm default with incomplete information. While public bond investors observe issuers' assets and defaults, we suppose that they are not informed about the threshold asset level at which a firm is liquidated. Bond investors form instead a prior on these thresholds. Stochastic dependence between default events is induced through correlated asset values and correlated default thresholds. The former results from dependence of firms on common macroeconomic factors, while the latter corresponds to direct inter-firm linkages. Having addressed this issuer interdependence, the predictions of our model are consistent with empirically well documented facts, in particular the clustering of defaults. We characterize joint conditional default probabilities as assessed by the imperfectly informed secondary market. The representation of dependence via (conditional) copulas is emphasized. We propose the default time copula as a consistent default correlation measure, which overcomes the limitations of existing covariance based measures. A case study is examined, where issuers' assets follow geometric Brownian motions and bond investors' threshold prior is uniform. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 2002,30.

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    Date of creation: 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200230

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    Related research

    Keywords: incomplete information; correlated defaults; default clustering; joint default distribution; copulas;

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    References

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    1. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-64, May.
    2. Robert A. Jarrow, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October.
    3. M. Davis & V. Lo, 2001. "Infectious defaults," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 382-387.
    4. Giesecke, Kay, 2001. "Default compensator, incomplete information, and the term structure of credit spreads," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,8, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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    Cited by:
    1. Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2002. "Credit contagion and aggregate losses," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,73, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. Yu, Fan, 2005. "Accounting transparency and the term structure of credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 53-84, January.
    3. Balakrishna, B S, 2006. "A Semi-Analytical Parametric Model for Dependent Defaults," MPRA Paper 14918, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 May 2007.
    4. Stuart M. Turnbull & Jun Yang, 2008. "Default Dependence: The Equity Default Relationship," Working Papers, Bank of Canada 08-1, Bank of Canada.
    5. Balakrishna, B S, 2007. "Delayed Default Dependency and Default Contagion," MPRA Paper 14921, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 May 2007.

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