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A Semi-Analytical Parametric Model for Dependent Defaults

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  • Balakrishna, B S

Abstract

A semi-analytical parametric approach to modeling default dependency is presented. It is a multi-factor model based on instantaneous default correlation that also takes into account higher order default correlations. It is capable of accommodating a term structure of default correlations and has a dynamic formulation in the form of a continuous time Markov chain. With two factors and a constant hazard rate, it provides perfect fits to four tranches of CDX.NA.IG and iTraxx Europe CDOs of 5, 7 and 10 year maturities. With time dependent hazard rates, it provides perfect fits to all the five tranches for all three maturities.

Suggested Citation

  • Balakrishna, B S, 2006. "A Semi-Analytical Parametric Model for Dependent Defaults," MPRA Paper 14918, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 May 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14918
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14918/1/MPRA_paper_14918.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
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    3. Lindskog, Filip & McNeil, Alexander J., 2003. "Common Poisson Shock Models: Applications to Insurance and Credit Risk Modelling," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 209-238, November.
    4. Giesecke, Kay, 2001. "Correlated default with incomplete information," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,30, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Hager, Svenja & Schöbel, Rainer, 2005. "A note on the correlation smile," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 297, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    7. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, February.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default Risk; Default Correlation; CDO; Markov Chain; Semi-analytical; Parametric;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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