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A Semi-Analytical Parametric Model for Dependent Defaults

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  • Balakrishna, B S
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    Abstract

    A semi-analytical parametric approach to modeling default dependency is presented. It is a multi-factor model based on instantaneous default correlation that also takes into account higher order default correlations. It is capable of accommodating a term structure of default correlations and has a dynamic formulation in the form of a continuous time Markov chain. With two factors and a constant hazard rate, it provides perfect fits to four tranches of CDX.NA.IG and iTraxx Europe CDOs of 5, 7 and 10 year maturities. With time dependent hazard rates, it provides perfect fits to all the five tranches for all three maturities.

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    File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14918/
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14918.

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    Date of creation: 16 Aug 2006
    Date of revision: 15 May 2007
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14918

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    Keywords: Default Risk; Default Correlation; CDO; Markov Chain; Semi-analytical; Parametric;

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    1. Giesecke, Kay, 2001. "Correlated default with incomplete information," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,30, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
    3. Sanjiv Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2006. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated," NBER Working Papers 11961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    5. Hager, Svenja & Schöbel, Rainer, 2005. "A note on the correlation smile," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 297, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    6. Robert A. Jarrow, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October.
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