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The adoption of lotteries in the United States, 1964 - 2007. A model of conditional and time-dynamical diffusion


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  • Lutter, Mark
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    The paper examines the determinants of the diffusion of state lotteries as a process of policy innovation. After more than 100 years of prohibition, U.S. states began to establish lotteries in the 1960s. The article uses statistical event history analysis to show that the adoption and diffusion of state lotteries depends on fiscal, political, and regional factors of competition as well as on normative factors of social legitimization. The article develops two further arguments, first by discussing an advanced model of regional diffusion that views the regional effect as being dependent on the ideologicalinstitutional context and second by analyzing time dynamics in the diffusion process to show how initial explanatory factors change over time. In general, the findings point to the institutional environment as a factor influencing the diffusion of organizations. -- Der Aufsatz beschäftigt sich mit den Determinanten der Diffusion staatlicher Lotterien als Beispiel einer politischen Innovation. Nach einer Verbotszeit von mehr als einhundert Jahren führten US-Bundesstaaten Lotterien ab den 1960er-Jahren schrittweise wieder ein. Anhand von statistischen Ereignisdatenanalysen zeigt der Beitrag, dass der Diffusionsprozess von fiskalischen, politischen und regionalen Faktoren ebenso wie von normativen Faktoren der sozialen Legitimierung abhängt. Der Aufsatz stellt zwei weitere Aspekte heraus, die empirisch demonstriert werden: Zum einen wird ein erweitertes regionales Diffusionsmodell diskutiert, das die räumliche Ausbreitung in Abhängigkeit zur ideologischen Struktur angrenzender Staaten erfasst; zum anderen wird die zeitliche Dynamik des Prozesses modelliert. Hierfür ist der soziologische Neo-Institutionalismus der theoretische Bezugspunkt, und es wird angenommen, dass mit zunehmender Dauer des Diffusionsprozesses die ursprünglichen Kausalfaktoren ihre Erklärungskraft zugunsten eines Bedeutungsgewinns von Legitimitätsaspekten verlieren. Die Ergebnisse dokumentieren isomorphische Adaptionsprozesse und in organisationsökologischer Hinsicht die Bedeutung institutioneller Umwelten für die Ausbreitung von Organisationen.

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    Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies in its series MPIfG Discussion Paper with number 11/4.

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    Date of creation: 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:114

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    1. Charles T. Clotfelter & Philip J. Cook, 1989. "Selling Hope: State Lotteries in America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clot89-1.
    2. Alm, James & McKee, Michael J. & Skidmore, Mark, 1993. "Fiscal Pressure, Tax Competition, and the Introduction of State Lotteries," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 46(4), pages 463-76, December.
    3. James Alm, 2004. "Introduction," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 231-235, 09.
    4. Jackson, John D & Saurman, David S & Shughart, William F, II, 1994. " Instant Winners: Legal Change in Transition and the Diffusion of State Lotteries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 80(3-4), pages 245-63, September.
    5. Beckert, Jens, 2005. "The Moral Embeddedness of Markets," MPIfG Discussion Paper 05/6, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
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