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Abstract

This paper analyses the accuracy of the tax projections of West German states from a public choice perspective. It argues that state governments have the possibility and face incentives to manipulate tax projections. Evidence for the years 1992 – 2002 reveals a general upward bias in tax projections in election as well as non-election years. The degree of overestimation is higher, the less popular the incumbent party is. Partisanship and elections have no significant influence. To improve external control of state governments in the budget process, the process of tax projections must be made transparent. --

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File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/22382/1/Arbeitspapier_74.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Justus Liebig University Giessen, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften in its series Finanzwissenschaftliche Arbeitspapiere with number 74.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:jlufwa:74

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Related research

Keywords: tax projections; political parties; budget process; public expenditures;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
• H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

References

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1. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. " The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
2. Dalen, H.P. van & Swank, O.H., 1996. "Government spending cycles: Ideological or opportunistic?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3107371, Tilburg University.
   
   • van Dalen, Hendrik P & Swank, Otto H, 1996. " Government Spending Cycles: Ideological or Opportunistic?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 89(1-2), pages 183-200, October.

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Cited by:

1. Goeminne, Stijn & Geys, Benny & Smolders, Carine, 2007. "Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2007-03, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
   
   • Stijn Goeminne & Benny Geys & Carine Smolders, 2008. "Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 297-315, June.
2. Helge Berger & Anika Holler, 2007. "What Determines Fiscal Policy? Evidence from German States," CESifo Working Paper Series 2062, CESifo Group Munich.
   
   • Berger, Helge & Holler, Anika, 2007. "What determines fiscal policy? Evidence from German states," Discussion Papers 2008/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

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