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Hidden defaults

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Listed:
  • Horn, Sebastian
  • Reinhart, Carmen M.
  • Trebesch, Christoph

Abstract

China's lending boom to developing countries is morphing into defaults and debt distress. Given the secrecy surrounding China's loans, also the associated defaults remain 'hidden', as missed payments and restructuring details are not disclosed. We construct an encompassing dataset of sovereign debt restructurings with Chinese lenders and find that these credit events are surprisingly frequent, exceeding the number of sovereign bond or Paris Club restructurings. Chinese lenders follow a resolution approach reminiscent of 1980s Western lenders; they seldom provide deep debt relief with face value reduction. If history is any guide, multi-year debt workouts with serial restructurings lie in store.

Suggested Citation

  • Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2022. "Hidden defaults," Kiel Working Papers 2208, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; external debt; default; crisis resolution; official lending; hidden debts; sovereign risk; Belt and Road initiative;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • N25 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Asia including Middle East

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