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Deutsche Geldpolitik ohne Orientierung? Eine empirische Untersuchung zu den Grundlagen der Geldmengenziele

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  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Die Potentialorientierung der Geldpolitik setzt voraus, daß der Geldmengenmultiplikator und die Umlaufgeschwindigkeit des Geldes hinreichend stabil sind. Vielfach wird behauptet, dies sei insbesondere seit der deutschdeutschen Währungsunion nicht mehr gegeben. Der These wird in einer empirischen Untersuchung nachgegangen. Auf der Basis von ARIMAZeitreihenmodellen wird gezeigt, daß eine etwaige Instabilität sich auf das Jahr 1990 beschränkt hat; in der Zeit danach lassen sich beide Größen wieder hinreichend genau prognostizieren. Außerdem läßt sich keine Änderung beim Trend der Umlaufgeschwindigkeit feststellen. Für die Geldpolitik in Deutschland folgt daraus, daß die Geldmenge M3 wesentlich langsamer steigen muß als zwischen Mitte 1991 und Ende 1992, wenn die Inflationsrate auf das weithin akzeptierte Ziel von zwei Prozent verringert werden soll.

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  • Scheide, Joachim, 1993. "Deutsche Geldpolitik ohne Orientierung? Eine empirische Untersuchung zu den Grundlagen der Geldmengenziele," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1567, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:1567
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scheide, Joachim, 1989. "A k-percent rule for monetary policy in West Germany," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1396, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Issing, Otmar, 1992. "Theoretische und empirische Grundlagen der Geldmengenpolitik der Deutschen Bundesbank," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 72(10), pages 537-548.
    3. Joachim Scheide, 1989. "A K-percent rule for monetary policy in West Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(2), pages 326-336, June.
    4. Johannes, James M. & Rasche, Robert H., 1979. "Predicting the money multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 301-325, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nautz, Dieter, 1997. "Wie brauchbar sind Multiplikatorprognosen für die Geldmengensteuerung der Bundesbank?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,40, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. Krämer, Jörg W. & Scheide, Joachim, 1994. "Geldpolitik: zurück zur Potentialorientierung," Kiel Discussion Papers 235, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Krämer, Jörg W., 1994. "Lassen sich zinsgewichtete Geldmengen besser steuern als gewöhnliche Geldmengen?," Kiel Working Papers 657, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Scharnagl, Michael, 1996. "Geldmengenaggregate unter Berücksichtigung struktureller Veränderungen an den Finanzmärkten," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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