IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwbox/201815.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Der Finanzzyklus in Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Quast, Josefine

Abstract

Größere Schwankungen bei den Verschuldungspositionen der privaten Haushalte und bei den Vermögenspreisen können die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung stark beeinflussen. So sind kräftige Anstiege des Kreditvolumens und der Immobilienpreise recht zuverlässige Indikatoren für bevorstehende Finanzkrisen. Ferner beinhalten sie Informationen für das Ausmaß von wirtschaftlichen Schwankungen. Rezessionen sind in der Regel umso ausgeprägter, je stärker das Kreditvolumen in dem vorherigen Aufschwung ausgeweitet wurde, und Erholungen von Rezessionen sind spürbar schwächer, sofern der vorherige Aufschwung mit einem Boom bei den Immobilienpreisen einherging. Schließlich können spürbare Ausweitungen des Kreditvolumens mit der Fehlallokation von Produktionsfaktoren einhergehen und in der Folge die Produktivität drücken. Indikatoren für den Finanzzyklus fassen die Entwicklungen an den Kreditmärkten und bei den Vermögenspreisen zusammen. Diesen Indikatoren ist seit der Großen Rezession im Zuge der globalen Finanzkrise größere Beachtung geschenkt worden, da sie frühzeitig vor den Risiken hätten warnen können.

Suggested Citation

  • Jannsen, Nils & Quast, Josefine, 2018. "Der Finanzzyklus in Deutschland," Kiel Insight 2018.15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201815
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/201174/1/ifw-box-2018-15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cecchetti, Stephen & Kharroubi, Enisse, 2015. "Why does financial sector growth crowd out real economic growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    3. Stephen Cecchetti & Enisse Kharroubi, 2012. "Reassessing the impact of finance on growth," BIS Working Papers 381, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    5. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: Implications for countercyclical capital buffers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The Unreliability of Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gaps in Real Time: Implications for Countercyclical Capital Buffers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 261-298, December.
    7. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-34.
    2. Terhi Jokipii & Reto Nyffeler & Stéphane Riederer, 2021. "Exploring BIS credit-to-GDP gap critiques: the Swiss case," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Valentina Flamini & Pierluigi Bologna & Fabio Di Vittorio & Rasool Zandvakil, 2019. "Credit Cycle and Capital Buffers in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2019/039, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
    6. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem & O’Neill, Cian & Raja, Akash, 2019. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," Bank of England working papers 824, Bank of England, revised 18 Oct 2019.
    7. Kátay Gábor & Kerdelhué Lisa & Lequien Matthieu, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," Working papers 791, Banque de France.
    8. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2021. "Which Credit Gap Is Better at Predicting Financial Crises? A Comparison of Univariate Filters," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-31, October.
    9. Jannsen Nils, 2019. "Hat die Fehlallokation von Produktionsfaktoren zur Produktivitätsschwäche in Deutschland beigetragen?," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 68(1), pages 6-26, May.
    10. Gerhard Rünstler & Marente Vlekke, 2018. "Business, housing, and credit cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 212-226, March.
    11. Jannsen, Nils, 2019. "Hat die Fehlallokation von Produktionsfaktoren zur Produktivitätsschwäche in Deutschland beigetragen?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 225298, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Daniel O. Beltran & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Fiona A. Paine, 2021. "Optimizing Credit Gaps for Predicting Financial Crises: Modelling Choices and Tradeoffs," International Finance Discussion Papers 1307, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Jannsen Nils, 2019. "Hat die Fehlallokation von Produktionsfaktoren zur Produktivitätsschwäche in Deutschland beigetragen?," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 68(1), pages 6-26, May.
    14. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    15. Aikman, David & Kiley, Michael & Lee, Seung Jung & Palumbo, Michael G. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2017. "Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 36-64.
    16. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    17. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
    18. David Aikman & Andreas Lehnert & J. Nellie Liang & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Xianglong Liu, 2023. "Towards Better Banking Crisis Prediction: Could an Automatic Variable Selection Process Improve the Performance?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 288-312, June.
    20. Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2016. "Finance and Growth: From the Business Cycle to the Long Run," Working Papers 2016-28, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201815. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.