Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Extended dividend, cash flow and residual income valuation models: Accounting for deviations from ideal conditions

Contents:

Author Info

  • Heinrichs, Nicolas
  • Hess, Dieter
  • Homburg, Carsten
  • Lorenz, Michael
  • Sievers, Soenke
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Standard equity valuation approaches (i.e., DDM, RIM, and DCF model) are derived under the assumption of ideal conditions, such as infinite payoffs and clean surplus accounting. Because these conditions are hardly ever met, we extend the standard approaches, based on the fundamental principle of financial statement articulation. The extended models are then tested empirically by employing two sets of forecasts: (1) analyst forecasts provided by Value Line and (2) forecasts generated by cross-sectional regression models. The main result is that our extended models yield considerably smaller valuation errors. Moreover, by construction, identical value estimates are obtained across the extended models. By reestablishing empirical equivalence under non-ideal conditions, our approach provides a benchmark that enables us to quantify the errors resulting from individual deviations from ideal conditions, and thus, to analyze the robustness of the standard approaches. Finally, by providing a level playing field for the different valuation approaches, our findings have implications for other empirical settings, for example, estimating the implied cost of capital. --

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/50002/1/667703225.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR) in its series CFR Working Papers with number 11-11.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1111

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Albertus Magnus Platz, 50923 Köln
    Phone: 0221 / 470 5607
    Fax: 0221 / 470 5179
    Email:
    Web page: http://cfr-cologne.de/english/version06/html/home.php
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Dirty Surplus; Terminal Value; Steady-State; Valuation Error;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Kaplan, Steven N & Ruback, Richard S, 1995. " The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1059-93, September.
    2. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Skinner, Douglas J., 2004. "Are dividends disappearing? Dividend concentration and the consolidation of earnings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 425-456, June.
    3. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Average Returns, B/M, and Share Issues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2971-2995, December.
    4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2005. "Financing decisions: who issues stock?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 549-582, June.
    5. Frankel, Richard & Lee, Charles M. C., 1998. "Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-319, June.
    6. John R. M. Hand & Wayne R. Landsman, 2005. "The Pricing of Dividends in Equity Valuation," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3-4), pages 435-469.
    7. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely, 2002. "Dividends, Share Repurchases, and the Substitution Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1649-1684, 08.
    8. Myron J. Gordon & Eli Shapiro, 1956. "Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 102-110, October.
    9. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, . "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay?."," CRSP working papers 509, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    10. Kewei Hou & David T. Robinson, 2006. "Industry Concentration and Average Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1927-1956, 08.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 2000. "Forecasting Profitability and Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 161-75, April.
    12. Mindy Morel, 2003. "Endogenous Parameter Time Series Estimation of the Ohlson Model: Linear and Nonlinear Analyses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1341-1362.
    13. Louis K. C. Chan & Jason Karceski & Josef Lakonishok, 2003. "The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 643-684, 04.
    14. Abarbanell, Jeffery S., 1991. "Do analysts' earnings forecasts incorporate information in prior stock price changes?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 147-165, June.
    15. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    16. Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Mathieu, Robert & Shehata, Mohamed, 2009. "Usefulness of comprehensive income reporting in Canada," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 349-365, July.
    17. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda, 2006. "The irrelevance of the MM dividend irrelevance theorem," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 293-315, February.
    18. Richard J. Sweeney & Arthur D. Warga & Drew Winters, 1997. "The Market Value of Debt, Market Versus Book Value of Debt, and Returns to Assets," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 26(1), Spring.
    19. Bowman, Robert G, 1979. "The Theoretical Relationship between Systematic Risk and Financial (Accounting) Variables," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(3), pages 617-30, June.
    20. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2006. "Profitability, investment and average returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 491-518, December.
    21. Helena Isidro & John O'Hanlon & Steven Young, 2006. "Dirty surplus accounting flows and valuation errors," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 42(3-4), pages 302-344.
    22. Hou, Kewei & van Dijk, Mathijs A. & Zhang, Yinglei, 2010. "The Implied Cost of Capital: A New Approach," Working Paper Series 2010-4, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    23. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Stefan Erdorf & Nicolas Heinrichs, 2011. "Co-movement of revenue: structural changes in the business cycle," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 411-433, December.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.