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Das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial zu Vollzeitäquivalenten: Messkonzept, Projektion und Anwendungsbeispiele

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  • Knetsch, Thomas A.
  • Sonderhof, Katja
  • Kempe, Wolfram

Abstract

Mit dem Erwerbspersonenpotenzial zu Vollzeitäuivalenten wird ein Messkonzept für das gesamtwirtschaftliche Arbeitsangebot auf Stundenbasis vorgeschlagen. Es dient zur Berechnung des Faktors Arbeit in angebotsseitigen Schätzungen des Produktionspotenzials in der mittleren Frist. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wird dem Einfluss der Zuwanderung und der Interdependenz zwischen Erwerbsbeteiligung und Arbeitszeitentscheidung geschenkt. Unter der Annahme zunehmender Beteiligung von Älteren und Frauen am Erwerbsleben sowie bei fortgesetzt hohen Wanderungsüberschüssen kann das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial trotz eines spürbar dämpfenden Alterskohorteneffekts bis 2020 stabilisiert werden. In Vollzeitäquivalenten ist aufgrund der negativen Rückwirkung steigender Erwerbsbeteiligung auf die Arbeitszeit allerdings mit einem Rückgang zu rechnen. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 26/2013.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:262013

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Keywords: Erwerbspersonenpotenzial; Arbeitsangebot; Zuwanderung; Alterung;

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  1. Kajuth, Florian, 2010. "NAIRU estimates for Germany: New evidence on the inflation-unemployment trade-off," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2005. "Vorausschätzung der Erwerbsbevölkerung bis 2050," IAB-Forschungsbericht, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] 200516, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  3. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 420, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  4. Fuchs, Johann & Dörfler, Katrin, 2005. "Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2050 : Annahmen und Datengrundlage," IAB-Forschungsbericht, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] 200525, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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