Einflussfaktoren auf das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial : Demografie und Erwerbsverhalten in Ost- und Westdeutschland
Abstract"This paper provides a decomposition of the projected change in the overall labour force in East and West Germany into three parts. The first, called the 'demographic component', shows the effects of fertility, mortality and a changing age structure of the population. The second effect is the migration component. This part is due to the cumulative net inflow of migrants, but includes their reproductive behaviour as well. Changes in the participation rates give the third effect, the participation rate component. The decomposition was done by comparing different labour force scenarios up to 2050. The method can easily be extended for decomposition into more than three factors. According to our results, the negative impact of the demographic factor on the labour force is very clear and is caused by the projected ageing of population to a great extend. Neither a strong increase in labour participation nor high immigration flows can stop the downward trend in labour force. Specific is that the demographic impact is even stronger for East Germany. As the age structure is almost given and increasing fertility rates only have positive effects in the very long run, the projected decline in labour force should be taken as a fact." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB Discussion Paper with number 200712.
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 07 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Erwerbspersonenpotenzial - Prognose; demografischer Wandel; Geschlechterverteilung; Ausländer; Wanderung; Altersstruktur; Westdeutschland; Ostdeutschland; Bundesrepublik Deutschland;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-17 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jan Dirk Vlasblom & Joop J. Schippers, 2004. "Increases in Female Labour Force Participation in Europe: Similarities and Differences," Working Papers 04-12, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
- Del Boca, Daniela, 2002.
"The Effect of Child Care and Part Time Opportunities on Participation and Fertility Decisions in Italy,"
IZA Discussion Papers
427, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Daniela Del Boca, 2002. "The effect of child care and part time opportunities on participation and fertility decisions in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 549-573.
- Marco Francesconi, 2002.
"A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part.
- Giuseppe Carone, 2005.
"Long-term labour force projections for the 25 EU Member States: A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing,"
European Economy - Economic Papers
235, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, EconWPA.
- Tim Liao, 1989. "A Flexible Approach for the Decomposition of Rate Differences," Demography, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 717-726, November.
- Young Kim & Donna Strobino, 1984. "Decomposition of the difference between two rates with hierarchical factors," Demography, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 361-372, August.
- Robert McNown & Sameer Rajbhandary, 2003. "Time series analysis of fertility and female labor market behavior," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 501-523, 08.
- Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2006. "Effekte alternativer Annahmen auf die prognostizierte Erwerbsbevölkerung," IAB Discussion Paper 200619, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2005. "Vorausschätzung der Erwerbsbevölkerung bis 2050," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200516, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Fitzenberger, Bernd & Schnabel, Reinhold & Wunderlich, Gaby, 2001.
"The gender gap in labor market participation and employment: a cohort analysis for West Germany,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
01-47, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Bernd Fitzenberger & Reinhold Schnabel & Gaby Wunderlich, 2004. "The gender gap in labor market participation and employment: A cohort analysis for West Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 83-116, February.
- Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2005. "Neuschätzung der Stillen Reserve und des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials für Ostdeutschland (einschl. Berlin-Ost)," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200518, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Anna Cristina D’Addio & Marco Mira d’Ercole, 2005. "Policies, Institutions and Fertility Rates: A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2005(2), pages 7-45.
- Fuchs, Johann & Dörfler, Katrin, 2005. "Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2050 : Annahmen und Datengrundlage," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200525, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Karsten Hank & Michaela Kreyenfeld & C. Katharina Spieß, 2003. "Kinderbetreuung und Fertilität in Deutschland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 331, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (IAB, Geschäftsbereich Dokumentation und Bibliothek).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.