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An affine multifactor model with macro factors for the German term structure: Changing results during the recent crises

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  • Halberstadt, Arne
  • Stapf, Jelena
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    Abstract

    Using arbitrage-free affine models, we analyze the dynamics of German bond yields and risk premia for the period 1999 to 2010 (EMU). We estimate two model specifications, one with only latent factors, and another one with a Taylor-type rule comprising a price and a real activity factor drawn from a large macroeconomic data set as additional driving forces. We apply several statistical methods to select those time series from which the factors are actually extracted. The macroeconomic factors, notably the real activity factor, help to improve the fit of the model. Moreover, the inclusion of the macroeconomic factors allows us to analyze their effect on the risk aversion of market participants. Looking at the impact of the recent crises, we see that particularly the market prices of risk for the real activity and the price factor changed most dramatically. Offsetting safe haven flows, which affect shorter maturities in particular, explain why yield risk premia increase less at the short end as compared to longer maturities in times of crisis. A liquidity stress factor included in the macro model mirrors this slope influencing effect of the safe haven flows and leads to smoother forward rates for yield risk premia. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 25/2012.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:252012

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    Keywords: affine term structure models; macroeconomic factors; risk premia; liquidity; financial crisis;

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    1. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dewachter, H.D.R. & Lyrio, M., 2003. "Macro factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Research Paper ERS-2003-037-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    3. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2007. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sandra Eickmeier & Tim Ng, 2009. "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-182, November.
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