IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofitp/bdp2021_008.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does a financial crisis change a bank's exposure to risk? A difference-in-differences approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mäkinen, Mikko

Abstract

Can a major financial crisis trigger changes in a bank's risk-taking behavior? Using the 2008 Global Financial Crisis as a quasi-natural experiment and a difference-in-differences approach, I examine whether the worst crisis-hit Russian banks - the banks that have strong incentives to behavior-altering changes - can decrease their post-crisis exposure to risk. A shift in risk-taking behavior by these banks indicates the learning hypothesis. The findings are mixed. The evidence concerning credit risk is inconsistent with the learning hypothesis. On the other hand, the evidence concerning solvency risk is consistent with the learning hypothesis and corroborates evidence from the Nordic countries (Berglund and Mäkinen, 2019). As such, bank learning from a financial crisis may not depend on the institutional context and the level of development of national financial market. Several robustness checks with alternative regression specifications are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Mäkinen, Mikko, 2021. "Does a financial crisis change a bank's exposure to risk? A difference-in-differences approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2021_008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/240386/1/dp2108.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    7. Farrukh Suvankulov & Fatma Ogucu, 2012. "Have firms with better corporate governance fared better during the recent financial crisis in Russia?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 769-773, May.
    8. Beltratti, Andrea & Stulz, René M., 2012. "The credit crisis around the globe: Why did some banks perform better?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 1-17.
    9. Anders Aslund & Sergie Guriev & Andrew Kuchins (ed.), 2010. "Russia after the Global Economic Crisis," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4976, October.
    10. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mäkinen, Mikko, 2021. "Does a financial crisis change a bank's exposure to risk? A difference-in-differences approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2021, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2021_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Aikman, David & Haldane, Andrew & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Kapadia, Sujit, 2018. "Rethinking financial stability," Bank of England working papers 712, Bank of England.
    4. Altunbas, Yener & Manganelli, Simone & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2017. "Realized bank risk during the great recession," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-44.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Tyler Muir, 2017. "Financial Crises and Risk Premia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 765-809.
    7. Ozlem Akin & José M Marín & José-Luis Peydró, 2020. "Anticipating the financial crisis: evidence from insider trading in banks," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(102), pages 213-267.
    8. Norman Loayza & Amine Ouazad & Romain Ranciere, 2017. "Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?," Working Papers 114, Peruvian Economic Association.
    9. Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.
    10. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2015. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part I: Financial crises," Economics wp68, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    11. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.
    12. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    13. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.
    14. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    15. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    16. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sam Langfield & Marco Pagano & Ricardo Reis & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "ESBies: safety in the tranches," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(90), pages 175-219.
    17. Morais, Bernardo & Peydró, José-Luis & Roldán Peña, Jessica & Ruiz Ortega, Claudia, 2019. "The International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Rates and QE: Credit Supply, Reach-for-Yield, and Real Effects," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74(1), pages 55-90.
    18. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Catão, Luis A.V. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2014. "External liabilities and crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-32.
    20. Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 965-1001, November.
    21. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Perri, Fabrizio, 2013. "Global banks and crisis transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 495-510.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; bank learning; bank risk; Russian banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2021_008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.